The spot yuan closed up slightly mildly on Monday after a day of lacklustre trading volume as markets waited for new signals. "It's quiet today," said a trader at a joint-stock bank in Shanghai. "Volumes are relatively light, and while prices weakened a bit due to the dollar index move overnight, there's no discernable trend in trade," he said.
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the official yuan midpoint - from which spot prices are allowed to diverge by 1 percent in either direction - at 6.3392 at market open. On Friday, the midpoint was 6.3305 to the dollar. Spot yuan opened slightly softer as well, then traded within a tight range by midday. It closed at 6.3568.
Traders expect the spot yuan to move between 6.35 and 6.37 against the dollar in the near term, while derivatives, including swaps and forwards, imply that the market expects the yuan to fall around 2 percent in the next 12 months. Offshore, the 250-day moving average of one-year dollar/yuan forward on Monday implied volatilities set another four-year low of 3.2497 percent. On Friday, it also hit a four-low year.
Lower volatilities imply a higher degree of market consensus about the future value of a currency. The 1-year non-deliverable forward yuan contract continued to widen its spread against spot prices as it has since mid-July, changing hands at 6.4473. Onshore forwards traded at 6.4786 at market close. Offshore spot yuan continues to trade near the onshore spot, selling at 6.3615 at market close.
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