‘Bread and circuses’

Roman poet Juvenal coined the famous phrase ‘bread and circuses’ to describe how the republic’s elite used free food and gladiatorial sport to keep the people “comfortably distracted” in difficult times; like food shortages or high prices.

When the strategically important city of Capua was on edge because of grain shortage, for example, made worse by a drought from lack of rain, people were more inclined to chomp away on their free breadcrumbs and watch Spartacus chop off a few heads in the arena than gather in the main square and protest against bureaucratic corruption responsible for their hunger.

Makes sense.

Centuries later the use of data analytics in behavioural science would reveal a strong link between tough times and the instinct to find some sort of a circus. It would even support strange studies that said that most people who watched and closely followed soap operas had turbulent personal lives and most of those that ordered pizza while watching were so far gone that they sought professional help for their psychological troubles.

Our little (Islamic) republic has neither free, or even affordable, food nor real gladiators, but we’re sure to have a circus on hand whenever drawing room discussions begin to revolve around expensive food, expensive fuel, high rents, higher unemployment, etc. The latest one is about the oldest performers in the circus doing political stunts they’ve never had to before to de-seat the sitting PM; whose own performance disappointed everybody in the audience since it was no better, if not actually worse, than others he’d rallied his monkeys, elephants and lions against all these years.

Lost in all the noise is the reality that this is a make-or-break moment not just for the government, but also for the economy, which would surely have tumbled into default if the IMF (International Monetary Fund) bailout program hadn’t been rescued.

And, more importantly, whether or not all the sacrifices it took to revive it were only for more breathing space while the debt mounts or real structural change will depend on the decisions that are taken now; before the next election. Some of them will not be very popular and some will have to be bulldozed through parliament. That’s the last thing PTI (Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf) needs when it has to whip up necessary numbers in case the no-confidence motion comes sooner rather than later.

The headline that followed the latest gossip about alliances and loyalties was about petrol prices rising by Rs12.03 per litre just a fortnight after government spokespersons couldn’t stop talking about the PM’s rejection of a recommended smaller increase “in the interest of the people”.

Still, the most watched TV programs are about journalists providing juicy revelations about the future specially flown to them. And speculation about Jahangir Tareen’s group finally tilting the scales against the government easily overshadows calculations about how deep yet another round of cost-push inflation, fueled by fuel prices, is going to bite into the budget of the common man.

There’s also talk of another mini-budget, and yet more taxes in the next annual budget, not to mention an even more hawkish (newly completely independent) state bank. This is just the kind of uncertainty that takes the wind out of the market’s sails just when it is all set for full-speed-ahead. It could also mean that the Fund could ask for more taxes down the road because businesses will have to cut back and exports will decrease.

But what’s all that compared to what’s going to happen if what a birdie told a journo about the very high number of PTI MNAs and MPAs ready to jump ship and latch onto the PML-N- and PPP-ticket lifeline is really true; especially if the pizza has extra cheese?

Copyright Business Recorder, 2022