Turkish central bank to keep rates steady despite high inflation

ISTANBUL: Turkey's central bank is expected to keep its one-week repo rate unchanged at 14% on Thursday, a Reuters poll showed, following an easing cycle that sparked a currency crisis late last year and sent inflation soaring to near 50%.

All 20 economists in the Reuters poll predicted the bank would leave its benchmark rate unchanged.

Under pressure from President Tayyip Erdogan, who seeks higher economic growth by boosting production, exports and credit, the central bank has slashed its policy rate by 500 basis points since September.

It held rates steady in its policy-setting meeting last month.

With real yields in deeply negative territory, the unorthodox rate cuts triggered a slide in the lira, which lost 44% of its value to the dollar last year. This prompted price hikes on a range of goods in the import-reliant economy.

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The central bank, which has doubling its end-2022 inflation forecast to 23.2%, said price stability will be achieved by increasing the lira's share in the financial system. It also said policy tools will be used to prioritise the local currency.

Economists predict inflation will peak around 55% in May due to energy price hikes and salary increases. Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati said he expected inflation to peak below 50% in April.

Based on nine predictions, the poll's median forecast for the year-end policy rate was 14.00%, with estimates ranging from 9% to 14%.

Goldman Sachs expected the policy rate to remain on hold as policymakers emphasized that rates will not rise and lowering rates risks destabilizing the lira.

"We continue to think that the current macroeconomic policy mix is unsustainable...(authorities) will keep the policy rate on hold and prefer to use a wide range of measures to encourage de-dollarization, support reserves," Goldman Sachs said in a note.

"Given the policy responses so far, we think the authorities are likely to increasingly rely on alternative measures should the pressure on the Lira build up."

The central bank will announce its rate decision at 1100 GMT on Feb. 17.