DOHA: Leading gas producers meet in Qatar from Sunday to discuss how to answer frantic world demand, but Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to stay away as Ukraine tensions soar, diplomats said.
The 11-member Gas Exporting Countries Forum holds its summit as the Ukraine showdown sends prices ever higher while Europe fears for its supplies from Russia.
The group that includes Russia, Qatar, Iran, Libya, Algeria and Nigeria — accounting for more than 70 percent of proven gas reserves — has faced mounting pressure as Europe has sought alternative suppliers to Russia.
But most say they are already at or near maximum production and can only send short term relief supplies to Europe if existing customers agree.
Diplomats who took part in preparatory meetings said the group — which excludes key producers Australia and the United States — will discuss ways to increase production in the medium term.
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“But their hands are tied, there is next to no spare gas,” said one, speaking on condition of anonymity. After two days of ministerial meetings, Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi, who has rarely left his country since taking office, is to join Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, for the main summit on Tuesday. President Abdelmadjid Tebboune of Algeria will also be present with other government leaders.
Putin is not expected to take up his invitation despite his country’s importance, diplomats said.
Thierry Bros, a professor at the Institute of Political Studies in Paris who specialises in the gas industry, said Russia has a dominant role in the industry as its Gazprom giant is the only enterprise with spare capacity.
“So it is Putin who decides, and he decides at the Kremlin.” Bros said the forum would probably reaffirm its message to Europe that it needs to sign long term contracts to secure a guaranteed supply.
All producing countries will have to make massive investments to increase their output, but the European Union has long resisted contracts of 10, 15 or 20 years. Now, however, it has vowed to transition to clean energies and also faces the Ukraine crisis.
“The meeting is interesting because there are the Russians, with whom we no longer like to speak, and the Qataris, who are big friends with the European Commission, again to try to get liquefied gas.
“For Russia and Qatar, the aim is to maximise revenues and guarantee a long term market for their gas commodity,” he said.
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