PM’s Russia visit

No. Yes. Maybe. Go. Cancel. Postpone. Why. Why not. What for. What not. These are some remarks/questions raised on the Prime minister’s visit to Russia. Many thought this visit was unnecessary. Many predicted disaster. Many expressed apprehensions.

Many stated opposition. Despite all this much ado about nothing, the visit happened as per schedule, as per expectations and as per Pakistan’s foreign policy. The fact that Russia attacked Ukraine during this visit was made out to be such a dampener. The fact that the Prime minister did not cancel his commitments was slayed by some quarters. Despite all this speculation, the visit produced some results that go beyond diplomacy.

The fear that Russians will attack has been there for a while. In fact, the Cold War era was full of this sentiment. So much so that there was a famous Hollywood movie made in 1966 by the name of “The Russians are coming, the Russians are coming”.

The movie shows that when a Soviet submarine gets stuck on a sandbar off the coast of a New England island, its commander orders his second-in-command, Lieutenant Rozanov, to get them moving again before there is an international incident. Rozanov seeks assistance from the island locals, including the police chief and a vacationing television writer, while trying to allay their fears of a Communist invasion by claiming he and his crew are Norwegian sailors.

The movie is a comedy but reflects how far back and deep rooted the level of distrust goes. This distrust between the two big powers has badly affected a very large number of smaller countries. Conflicts breed wars, and wars breed more conflicts, leading to a lose-lose for all. The roots of the present conflict are threefold:

1. The Superpower Struggle— It is and will be this desire to expand and control that is the root cause of invasion, occupation and wars. For the west, supporting Ukraine symbolizes an opportunity to expand its influence and for Russia it is a sore point too near its own country to let that influence happen. In 2015 election, in Ukraine, the pro-Russian President was replaced with pro-West President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Russian fears of NATO giving Ukraine the membership and then have proximity advantage, have heightened with time to the extent that a war had become inevitable. While Putin wants a guarantee that Ukraine will not be included in NATO, US and the west are not willing to give that guarantee.

2. The War Economy— Corona has had a devastating impact on US and Western economies. Demand is volatile, supply is uncertain and both the powers have looked powerless and clueless on dealing with the pandemic and its side-effects. This has made them insecure. To overcome this insecurity they have tried geo-political moves to assert their supremacy. That is why the constant attempt to include Ukraine in NATO association. The core of the NATO treaty is Article 5, a commitment that an attack on any NATO country is treated as an attack on the entire alliance. Thus giving the west a chance to attack Russia if Russia attacks Ukraine as well as bolster up its defense industry and popularity.

3. The Gas Attraction— Europe is heavily dependent on Russian gas supply. After Russia, Ukraine holds the second biggest known gas reserves in Europe. However, only 2% of these reserves are used due to a lack of capacity to develop reserves in Ukraine. Couple this huge gas reservoir with a pretty well developed gas transportation and transit infrastructure and Ukraine looks the equivalent of oil power struggle in Iraq and Iran. The west would love to “occupy” the gas reserves and Russia would hate to let that happen.

Pakistan is at a complex foreign policy juncture. It has been increasing its influence in Central Asia. It has developed better terms with neighbors like Bangladesh, Iran and Afghanistan. Thus the visit to firstly China and then Russia was seen with keen interest. The Russian visit was even more crucial as it was at a stage where stakes of important stakeholders were high. What it needs to do to capitalize on this bold and strategic move is to:

1. Keep Focusing on National Stakes— Are you being dictated? Are you being coerced? Are you being influenced? By stakeholders whose stakes lie elsewhere. Whose interests are incompatible? Who wants to exploit your dependence? The fact that Pakistan has come out of “do more” to “no more” is a huge foreign policy shift.

The biggest change and risk was not going to be going into Russia in the midst of war but taking a stand against forces trying to detain you from pursuing your agenda. In the past a phone call was enough. This time no call or force could change the visit. This has really signaled Pakistan’s decades long subjugation to outside forces. This may bring some stiff consequences in the short run but will be a huge shift towards the vision of a sovereign Pakistan.

1. Engage with all— The other important thing is to dispel this notion of being inclined towards one bloc or the other. Recent visits being more frequent in one region is due to the situation in Afghanistan and Ukraine. Any bloc wanting to take Pakistan on board should be welcome.

But neither Pakistan is going to beg for attention nor refuse any initiative that will help the country safeguard its own interest. Even after the visit the communique clearly spelled out Pakistan’s regret on the war and its principled stance on conflict resolution through dialogue. The appointment of the new American envoy to Pakistan with the hope of strengthening relations of trade, etc, is a positive development.

1. Develop a Geo Economic Opportunity Matrix— The meeting with the Russian President was watched by all. How the Russian President made the Prime minister sit as equals unlike other heads of state told a story. The meeting that went on for three hours, mattered to all. For Pakistan the main gain was of course the economic opportunity of having access to gas reserves, wheat procurement and many other industrial projects. The opportunity matrix has to be productive and diverse and should explore inclusion of other countries. Russian markets will create that diversity of opportunity that Pakistan needs to decrease its dependence on any one bloc.

Rarely in history has Pakistan been quoted as leader or an example by the world community. Now the accolades pour in. In Corona, the WHO has declared it as a best practice model. In climate change Boris Johnson has said, ‘we must learn from Pakistan’.

In poverty alleviation the World Bank has said Ehsaas Programme is in the top three social development programmes in the world. Bill Gates wants to learn from NCOC. With Pakistan gaining strategic respect, America is bound to revisit its stance towards the country. Many would not like to believe this, many would try to paint another scenario. But false strokes cannot hide the reality of a Pakistan rising.

(The writer can be reached at [email protected])

Copyright Business Recorder, 2022