The Ides of March

Some well wisher should have advised Prime Minister Imran Khan to take heed of the warning to Julius Caesar regarding the Ides of March in Shakespeare’s play. In its absence, things appear inexorably to be going south for the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) government. Critics would say with some satisfaction: not a moment too soon. Three and a half years into its term, few would argue against the perception that Imran Khan’s government has proved its own worst enemy.

Latest reports say the session of the National Assembly (NA) to consider the no-confidence motion against the PM moved by the combined opposition is likely to be called on March 21, 2022 and voting on the motion is likely to be conducted on March 28, 2022. If only it were that simple. The PTI has ‘ordered’ all its MNAs to absent themselves from the session, with a threat in the very next breath that any PTI member violating this instruction will be unseated under the defection clause (Article 63-A of the Constitution).

The only problem is, can a party compel its members not to attend an NA session, and that too one in which a no-confidence motion is to be discussed? If the ruling PTI manages to have this directive implemented, it would establish a new parliamentary precedent of a no-confidence motion being discussed and carried or defeated in a house sporting empty treasury benches.

The other problem is that the PTI spokespeople seem to be ignoring the fact that the defection clause only kicks in, and is adjudicated by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) within 30 days after a notice is sent to it, after the vote, not before, the latter tantamount to a pre-emptive move that would deny the PTI members to vote according to their conscience, as is the parliamentary norm and principle. Any such member unseated by the ECP has the right to appeal before the Supreme Court (SC), retaining his/her seat until the appeal is decided. This implies his/her vote on the no-confidence motion remains valid regardless.

If the ruling PTI seems rattled, the opposition too appears close to losing some of its marbles. Appeals to the SC Chief Justice and the ECP to intervene and prevent the PTI from ‘banning’ its members’ attendance seems a stretch, as does the argument that such an action could see the PTI leadership being charged under Article 6 of the Constitution (treason). The only saving grace appears to be some still sane opposition voices arguing parliament should safeguard its own rights, not the judiciary, the latter argument the latest manifestation of the wholesale judicialisation of politics of the past few years.

Complications abound galore. The Speaker of the NA, Asad Qaiser, has made himself even more controversial than usual by openly dismissing the chances of the success of the opposition’s no-confidence motion at a rally in Lower Dir the other day, even before the session has been officially called! We live in interesting times indeed. This development has predictably elicited the opposition’s response of no confidence in the impartiality of the Speaker and challenging his credibility and standing to preside over the no-confidence motion session.

Imran Khan appears to be under pressure from all these developments. His penchant for abuse of opponents has reached new heights (or lows). Now the three main opposition leaders have earned from him the description “rats”. Even Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain has felt compelled to advise the PM against the use of such language for political opponents. The Chaudhries’ Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) has smartly positioned itself centre-stage in this crisis. Having failed to persuade its coalition partner PTI to surrender the Punjab Chief Ministership to Chaudhry Pervez Elahi (currently the Punjab Assembly Speaker), the PML-Q seems to have succeeded in getting a commitment from the opposition Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) that Elahi will be given the slot after Usman Buzdar is ousted (presumably as Act II of the federal no-confidence drama). It stands to reason then that the PML-Q would want the present Assemblies to complete their tenure so that Pervez Elahi can at least enjoy the remaining one and a half years in the Chief Minister Punjab’s seat. Reports say Nawaz Sharif prefers the ouster of the present setup entire straight after the no-confidence vote while Shehbaz Sharif is inclined to accept Pervez Elahi’s preference as the price for Imran Khan’s ouster. What boggles the mind though is how Pervez Elahi will manage the Punjab Assembly with a hostile PTI majority?

While the PML-Q is seen tilting towards the opposition, the other two PTI coalition allies, Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P) and Balochistan Awami Party (BAP), seem still undecided, at least till all three minor coalition partners have had a chance to hold mutual consultations, which appear imminent. If all three switch sides, the PTI government will fall. If even two switch sides, the PTI government will fall (all other things being equal).

Imran Khan’s call for a PTI rally at D-Chowk while the no-confidence motion session is on, and the opposition’s (so far rhetorical) response to hold its own counter-rally at the same venue could risk a violent confrontation that could destabilise the entire existing political structure. What might follow some such development beggars the mind. Imran Khan seems bent on a confrontation if he and his government are ousted.

Interesting times indeed.

[email protected]

rashed-rahman.blogspot.com

Copyright Business Recorder, 2022