NEW YORK: US natural gas futures rose about 2% to a nine-week high on Monday as the gas market followed oil and other energy prices higher and on forecasts for more US gas demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
US gas futures have climbed in recent months - prices in March averaged their highest in eight years - while global gas prices and demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) have soared as several countries seek to wean themselves off Russian gas after Moscow invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24.
Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a “special military operation.”
Front-month gas futures rose 8.8 cents, or 1.5%, to $5.808 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 10:19 a.m. EDT (1419 GMT), putting the contract on track for its highest close since Jan. 27 for a fourth day in a row.
That kept the front month in technically overbought territory with a relative strength index (RSI) over 70 for a fourth day in a row and caused the 12-month futures strip to rise to its highest since February 2010 for a second day in a row.
With LNG exports near record highs, US gas speculators boosted their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges for a second week in a row last week to their highest since early March, according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitments of Traders report.
Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states rose from 93.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in March to 94.8 bcfd so far in April as more wells returned to service after freezing over the winter. That compares with a monthly record of 96.3 bcfd in December. Refinitiv projected average US gas demand, including exports, would drop from 98.5 bcfd this week to 93.3 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally milder. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv’s outlook on Friday.
The amount of gas flowing to US LNG export plants slipped from a record 12.9 bcfd in March to 12.8 bcfd so far in April. The United States can turn about 13.2 bcfd of gas into LNG.
The US gas market remains mostly shielded from higher global prices because the United States, as the world’s top gas producer, has all the fuel it needs for domestic use and capacity constraints limit its ability to export more LNG no matter how high global prices rise.
European gas, meanwhile, slipped about 1% on Monday to around $36 per mmBtu on oversupply concerns. So far this year, the US gas market has followed European prices less than half the time.
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