Ivorian cocoa arrivals seen down

Cocoa arrivals at ports in top grower Ivory Coast reached around 1,339,000 tonnes by September 2 since the start of the season in October, exporters estimated on Monday, compared with 1,412,845 tonnes in the same period of the previous season. Exporters estimated around 6,000 tonnes of beans were delivered to the West African state's two ports between August 27 and September 2, down from 17,963 tonnes in the same week a year ago.
Exporters estimate arrivals by counting truckloads arriving at the ports. Poor weather mid-way through the 2011/12 campaign is expected to see Ivorian production drop compared to the previous season's record crop with the International Cocoa Organisation forecasting total output of 1.35 million tonnes this year, down from more than 1.5 million tonnes in 2010/11.
Regular rainfall since April has raised farmers' hopes of a robust start to the forthcoming season, which is marketed from October 1. However, more than a month of unseasonable cool and overcast weather conditions have led to an outbreak of fungal black pod disease, which has been worsened by a lack of anti-fungal treatments on many plantations.
Production and quality concerns just weeks before the new season begins are coupled with persisting uncertainty over the implementation of a sweeping government-led reform of the cocoa sector. The overhaul aims to guarantee minimum incomes for farmers in order to encourage them to reinvest in the country's ageing plantations. But buyers and exporters worry that a lack of clarity on a yet to be announced scale of reimbursable costs could saddle them with losses.
Ivory Coast is recovering from a decade-long political crisis that ended with a brief civil war last year that killed more than 3,000 people. While President Alassane Ouattara has largely succeeded in improving security in most of the country, a spate of raids on army and police installations last month has raised fears of renewed instability.
Liffe December cocoa futures traded down 33 pounds ($52.42) or 1.9 percent at 1,664 pounds a tonne on Monday. Traders said the buying in ICE cocoa, which had jumped almost $250 or more than 10 percent last week, had been overdone and fears about damage to West African crops were exaggerated. On Friday, ICE cocoa ended the month more than 9 percent higher due to investor buying amid fears of lower output from top producer Ivory Coast.