The long and the short of it

Imran Khan has finally announced his long march on Islamabad for May 25, 2022. He has dubbed it the ‘battle for real freedom’, leaving all and sundry perplexed what that means. Is there an ‘unreal’ freedom? Freedom from whom or what? In the absence of a coherent explanation for most of his pronouncements at the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf’s (PTI’s) rolling rallies, your guess is as good as mine. One thing, however, is very clear.

Imran Khan intends a sit-in once again in the federal capital (a la 2014) until the National Assembly (NA) is dissolved and the date for fresh elections is announced. It must be kept in mind though that sit-in 2.0 lacks the context of 2014 as well as the notable support of the establishment.

In the same breath, he who castigated the establishment’s ‘neutrality’ in the crisis that eventually ended the PTI government, now demands it should remain neutral. Such flip-flops are regular fare from the former prime minister (PM).

It seems to be the season for rallies. In response to Imran Khan’s relentless rolling out of rally after rally, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)-led coalition government too has hit the rally trail. One could be excused for wondering whether we are in the middle of an election campaign, given the sound and fury emanating from either side’s public meetings.

But this is not the only response of the government. News reports on May 23, 2022 spoke of a decision finally by the government to complete its term, which may allow it the space to take the tough economic decisions required and have enough time to ride out any public backlash.

The government had been wrestling with the dilemma of finding the right path between the suggested alternatives of staying put and taking the politically costly decisions as soon as possible, or calling early elections, leaving these tough decisions and the IMF deal to an interim government.

The triumphalism that accompanied the removal of the PTI government soured quickly when the present incumbents realised what they had landed in: no bed of roses. Interestingly, observers have noted the clever manner in which Pakistan’s Machiavelli, Asif Ali Zardari, has persuaded the PML-N and allies to go for the no-confidence motion, resulting in Imran Khan’s departure and Shehbaz Sharif and the PML-N left holding the baby of tough, unpopular decisions.

There are rumours and speculations aplenty that Nawaz Sharif did not agree with this strategy, arguing instead for leaving Imran Khan in situ and letting him sink under the weight of his own incompetence by the end of his term.

Meanwhile, Punjab is still not free of the PTI and allies’ shenanigans. Speaker Parvez Elahi pulled another fast one on May 23, 2022, hastily calling a session of the Punjab Assembly and taking just nine minutes to have the no-confidence motion against him ‘disposed of’ before the PML-N Members of the Punjab Assembly (MPAs) even had a chance to enter the Assembly hall.

However, this legerdemain may not end Parvez Elahi’s troubles since the PML-N reintroduced the no-confidence motion by the evening of the same day. Punjab has effectively been without a government since Usman Buzdar resigned.

Hamza Shehbaz Sharif’s election as Chief Minister (CM) Punjab became infructuous after the Supreme Court (SC) ruled the vote of any parliamentarian voting against the instructions of his/her party cannot be counted, and the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) unseated the 25 PTI MPAs who voted for Hamza Shehbaz Sharif. That means a fresh election for CM Punjab, with frantic moves afoot behind the curtain to garner the necessary majority.

Many commentators well versed in the law and Constitution have obliquely criticised the SC’s 3-2 ruling, which some say follows Article 63(a) to the letter (if not spirit), and others reopening the debate about individual parliamentarians’ freedom of conscience versus party discipline.

Article 63(a) and other similar restraints against voting against the party whip were brought in to overcome the phenomenon of buying and selling parliamentarians’ votes, which is enshrined under the rubric the ‘Changa Manga’ culture.

But in putting obstacles in the path of parliamentarians of easy virtue, we have instituted a form of party dictatorship that does not sit easily with democratic parliamentary norms and conventions. It is a sad comment when one casts doubts on the integrity of our elected representatives, but this is not without weight, given the track record.

PM Shehbaz Sharif has categorised Imran Khan’s present campaign as an attempt to instigate a civil war. Whether the latter intends any such thing and has the capacity to implement it or not, things are moving towards a clash between the two sides of the political divide.

The government decided on May 23, 2022 to seal off all approaches to the federal capital in time honoured fashion by placing containers in the path of the anticipated long march columns. That could provide a flash point. Whether this can prevent the marchers from reaching the heart of Islamabad and pitching their ‘tent’ for an indefinite sit-in remains an open question. Blood could flow if neither side retreats from its maximum position.

Stepping back from the nitty-gritty of the current confrontation between the PTI and the government, it is an interesting study to try and ascertain the deeper meaning behind these events. Pakistan’s problem from day one has been the lack of a democratic system, those imposed systems claiming this honorific in our history having been long exposed and rejected.

Even now, the two factions of the ruling elite at loggerheads do not subscribe to an agreed set of rules for the political game. The PTI in particular publicly claims radical aims that are contradicted by its statements claiming to be the best choice for the establishment to plumb for.

The other side is led by two main parties, the PML-N and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). The former emerged from the womb of the General Ziaul Haq military dictatorship, but fell foul of the establishment three times. The PPP, whatever its radical past, has long ago surrendered to the ‘necessity’ of collaboration with the establishment. This leaves the people with pretty poor choices in the present conjuncture.

The people need a credible, effective, non-collaborationist movement for a genuine democracy. History awaits.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2022