The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has projected the Pakistani currency to depreciate relative to the US dollar over the next decade with exchange rate of $85.3 in 2011 to $123.19 in 2021. ADB in one of its recent working paper titled 'Asean and Global Rice Situation and Outlook' says that in Pakistan, a combination of internal political conflicts and low levels of foreign investment have led to the country's slow economic growth.
GDP is projected to grow by 4.32% per year over the next 10 years on average. Pakistan's economy is composed of 20.9% agriculture, 25.8% industry, and 53.3% services. Per capita income is $2,800. The country's population is projected to grow from 187.34 million in 2011 to 216.64 million in 2021, or a growth of 1.48% per year.
The working paper while highlighting the overall rice production and yield in Pakistan says that the country harvested 2.75 million hectares of rice in 2011, producing 6.5 million tons of milled rice, an average yield of 2.36 tons (mt) per hectare. Total milled rice production grows at 1.1% per year, of which 0.42% comes from yield growth and 0.68% from expansion in harvested area.
Total rice consumption (2.47 million tons in 2011) in Pakistan grows at 3.67% annually due to population growth of 1.48% with gain in per capita use of 2.18%. The country is projected to be a relatively stable rice exporter over the baseline period, with shipments in the range of 3.7-3.9 million tons. Over the same period, the country's exchange rate path increasingly makes its rice more competitive in the international market. Global Rice Situation and Outlook shows that a combination of slow growth in rice consumption and increased output are expected to dampen international rice prices over the baseline period. The international rice reference price for long grain rice is projected to decline steadily from $486 per ton in 2011 to $421 in 2021. The medium grain rice price, however, would be stable above $800 per ton.
The international rice market is highly volatile due to a number of reasons. Rice has inelastic supply and demand throughout much of Asia, where it is the dominant staple food. While rice is the primary staple for half the world's population, it is thinly traded. Only 7% of rice production is traded as opposed to 10% for coarse grains and 16% for wheat. Global rice exports are highly concentrated with the top five exporters - Thailand, India, Vietnam, Pakistan, and the US, in that order - which altogether account for 87% of global net trade.
According to the working paper, Pakistan is projected to produce 6.7 million tons of rice in 2012-13 over an area of 2.8 million hectares with a total yield of 2.37 tons per hectare and total consumption of 2.7 million tons. Similarly, in the same year, the rice exports are projected to be 3.9 million tons.
The country is projected to produce 6.9 million tons rice in 2017-18 over an area of 2.8 million hectares with a total yield of 2.42 tons per hectare and total consumption of 3.2 million tons. Similarly, in the same year, the rice exports are projected to be 3.8 million metric tons. The working paper projects the overall rice exports of Pakistan to be 3.7 million tons in 2021-22 with a total production of 7.2 million tons cultivated over an area of 2.9 million hectares.
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