Economy and national security

The fragile state economy of the country is worrisome and has distressed all segments of society and pillars of state economy. The underprivileged shall wade through it with some perishing while some surviving in the process. The privileged have enough buffers stacked overseas and in the country to absorb the ensuing shocks.

The most threatened is national security. A compromise on that can change the destiny of the nation from one day to another and the process is irreversible. History, time and again, has shown that. There is an undeniable nexus between national security and state economy, and likewise between national security, diplomacy and economic diplomacy.

The post-World War II, the US has reigned supreme on the strength of its strong military might and economic diplomacy with control over global lenders such as International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Its economic strength is complemented its national security diplomacy, enabling it to impose a world order by ensuring that governments are aligned to its philosophy of state governance and rules of business.

The Soviet Union embarked on its security diplomacy of global influence while ignoring its economic diplomacy. It failed and the union disintegrated into 15 states. China followed the pattern of the US of economic diplomacy. It, however, saw no advantage in pushing its doctrine of state governance on other nations.

India, after emerging from an economic collapse in 1994 never looked back to bad years. Since 1994 it is on a growth trajectory with GDP moving between 6 and over 10 percent. A change of government, political conflicts and national calamities had little or no impact on its economic growth. India’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to be US$ 3.12 trillion in FY22. It has emerged as the fastest-growing major economy in the world. It is expected to become one of the top three economic powers in the world over the next 10-15 years.

India, though quite prematurely, attempted to roll out its security diplomacy by venturing into disputed territory in the Himalayas only to be repulsed by China. It got away by undoing the special status of Occupied Jammu & Kashmir because Pakistan, being one of the principal stakeholders, could not mobilise world support in view of its inherent weak economic position that renders it dependent on others. Such is the power of economic status in national security diplomacy.

Indian leaders have always been fully cognizant that unless India is recognised as a regional power it cannot be treated as a global power. Indian leaders, notably Jawaharlal Nehru, Atal Behari Vajpayee and Inder Kumar Gujral tried to amicably reconcile the differences with Pakistan and win it over for a bigger objective. Many a time the solution was within reach but had to be aborted at the tail end. The BJP government under Narendra Modi has opted to achieve this objective through covert and destructive means. Enough proofs have been gathered and made public by the country’s security agencies. But, there are no takers even in the quarters of the United Nations and among our friends. The defence budget of India is $71 billion compared to $ 11 billion of Pakistan. The disparity has been systematically widening since 1995 and this trend shall exponentially widen on account of India’s rapid economic growth. All of Pakistan’s borders face threat without any exception.

The threat from India, abetted by other vested interests, is for real. Pakistan has to fight this threat on its own. What stands in the way is the frail state of its economy. The choice to address the economy or stay embroiled in politics of self-destruction rests with powers in whose hands the reins of the nation have been entrusted — rightly or wrongly.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2022