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International Steels Limited (PSX: ISL) was set up as a public limited company in 2007 under the repealed Companies Ordinance, 1984 (now, Companies Act, 2017). It is a subsidiary of International Industries Limited. ISL’s product offering includes cold rolled, galvanized and color coated steel coils and sheets.

Shareholding pattern

As at June 30, 2021, over 56 percent shares were held under the category of sponsor/holding company. This category solely includes International Industries Limited. The local general public owns over 13 percent shares followed by nine percent held in associated companies, undertakings and related parties. The latter solely includes Sumtomo Corporation. The directors, CEO, their spouses and minor children own 2.6 percent shares while the remaining about 19 percent shares are with the rest of the shareholder categories.

Historical operational performance

The company has mostly seen a growing topline with the exception of FY15 and FY20. Profit margins, on the other hand, declined between FY17 and FY20, before improving again in FY21.

In FY18, International Steel Limited’s revenue grew by over 41 percent, crossing Rs 47 billion. Volumetric gain stood at 10 percent. The double-digit growth of revenue was primarily due to a rise in global steel prices. Overall, as well, there was an increase in construction activities that encouraged demand for steel and allied products. During the year, the company completed its new Compact Cold Rolling Mill that increased capacity to one million tons. With cost of production slightly higher at nearly 84 percent, gross margin was recorded at a lower 16 percent, compared to 17.5 percent in FY17. However, net margin was very marginally better at 9.17 percent due to a notably lower tax expense.

Revenue growth in FY19 stood at 20.7 percent increasing topline to over Rs 57 billion. While galvanized sales volumes registered a decline of 11 percent, cold rolled products increased by almost 12 percent. On the other hand, cost of production increased to nearly 89 percent of revenue, attributed to higher international steel prices, exchange rate fluctuation and rising interest rates. As a result, gross margin shrunk to 11.2 percent, while an escalation in finance expense due to rising interest rates, coupled with getting project finance, reduced net margin to 4.6 percent for the year.

After growing for four consecutive years, topline of ISL in FY20 contracted by over 16 percent with revenue falling to Rs 48 billion. Sales volumes were also lower with galvanized sales reduced by 23 percent and cold rolled products by 17 percent. Moreover, cost of production further increased to consume over 91 percent of revenue, bringing gross margin down to 8.8 percent. With rising financing requirements, finance expense increased to make up nearly 5 percent of revenue, thereby reducing net margin to one percent, the lowest seen since FY13.

Topline bounced back in FY21 as it posted a growth of over 45 percent to reach close to Rs 70 billion. Overall sales volumes increased by 17.6 percent. This was largely contributed by galvanized sales that posted a growth of 23 percent year-on-year. Sales volumes for Cold Rolled products increased by 10 percent. Domestic sales increased by 19 percent while export sales registered an incline of 11 percent. The latter was due to Covid-19 related restriction that opened up new untapped export destinations for the company. With cost of production also at an all-time low of 80.67 percent of revenue, gross margin increased to 19.3 percent. This also reflected in the net margin that was also recorded at the highest 10.7 percent, bottomline posted at Rs 7.5 billion.

Quarterly results and future outlook

Revenue in the first quarter of FY22 was higher by over 56 percent year on year. This was attributed to demand recovery as lockdowns eased. There was a strong growth in both export sales as well as domestic sales. In addition, production cost was notably better at 82 percent compared to 91 percent in 1QFY21. The resultant improved gross margin also translated into better net margin as the latter was recorded at nearly 11 percent compared to 3.6 percent in 1QFY21.

In the second quarter revenue was again higher year on year, by over five percent. The company continued to witness rising export sales. In addition, the de-bottlenecking project to expand Cold Rolled capacity is planned to begin in the second half of the year. However, the rise in production cost to nearly 85 percent of revenue versus 80 percent in 2QFY21, reduced profitability for the year as seen in a lower net margin of over 8 percent versus 12.4 percent in 2QFY21.

In the third quarter revenue was higher by almost 57 percent year on year with both export sales and domestic sales seeing an increase in volumes. However, production cost was significantly higher at over 91 percent compared to 76.4 percent in 3QFY21. This can be attributed to a surge in commodity prices, particularly since the beginning of the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Thus, net margin was reduced to 4.1 percent compared to 13.7 percent in 3QFY21.

ISL has seen a consistent growth in volumes both on the domestic and export front. In addition, its de-bottlenecking project is also on track to be completed in the fourth quarter. However, with the economy undergoing challenges such as rising oil prices, widening current account deficit and inflationary pressures, profitability cannot be ascertained.

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samir sardana Jul 01, 2022 11:44am
This is a Tolling operation Buy Imported HRC & Sell CRC & Galvanised Steel So the PURE Tolling Margin is the CRC - HRC rates in USD in FOB,say in North East Asia Pakistan does not make HRC ,so there are imports,& so, there is FX risk & Sea Freight & Insurance uncertainty. That reduces the Pakistan Tolling Margins If the PKR depreciates then the CRC prices in PKR will keep rising (assuming CRC USD rates are constant) - so,since ISM imported HRC 45 days ago, it will HAVE A DEEMED FX GAIN - as import duty on CRC in Pakistan is also a GAIN. So the Key Metric is the Pakistan Tolling Margin vs the Japanese or Chinese Tolling Margin.The Difference is the POWER & GAS COSTS,STAFF COSTS,FX & IMPORT DUTY SHELTER OF PAKISTAN & CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS (of Pakistan). ALL OTHER COSTS ARE BELOW THE LINE. SO WE SHOULD COMPARES THE TECHNICAL TOLLING MARGIN - ID.EST. BASED ON THROUGHPUT,YIELD, WASTAGES & POWER & GAS CONSUMPTION (QUANT ONLY) - & ANALYSE THE DIFFERENCES.dindooohindoo
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samir sardana Jul 01, 2022 12:18pm
So A Tolling operation is no more than FX speculation - Part 1 The CASE 1 Business Model is as under : ISM buys HRC at say 700 USD/T FOB at say Pohang Add Freight to Qasim & CIFFO = say 750 USD/T Add Duty of say 10% = 825 USD/T Now ISM has 2 options - keep the FX open or hedge it for, say 45 days (for the FX exposure on HRC imports - which starts from the date of order) - which is the conversion cycle to CRC So what does ISM do ? He sells CRC by contract delivery 30 days hence, at say 900 USD/T (to a local Pakistani) + 15% duty in Pakistan = 1036 USD/T.If Pakistani importer IMPORTS CRC - he will get it in 30 days with FX risk & freight risk - so he buys from ISM at 1035 USD BUT IN PKR at a price of say 230000/Ton PLUS TAXES PKR Spot is 214 & ISM has loaded forward USD -3 months, of Rs 14,on the price & has a ILC from the Pakistani buyer (so ISM is fully secured) .Now his HRC Import position is UNHEDGED.
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samir sardana Jul 01, 2022 12:24pm
So A Tolling operation is no more than FX speculation - Part 2 Now ISM plays the FX. SAY PKR APPRECIATES BY A 3-4 Rupees to 210 - on that day,he can hedge the import OR Drawdown the Cash Credit - BUY USD & pay off the SUPPLIER OF HRC IN USD (at 210 - when he sold the steel in Pakistan at 230 in terms of PKR translation) SO ISM HAS THE TOLLING MARGIN OF 10% PLUS A GUARANTEED FX GAIN of 230 MINUS 210 PLUS THE IMPORT DUTY DIFFERENTIAL OF HRC AND CRC IN PAKISTAN THIS IS THE GAME ! The CASE 2 Business Model is as under : ISM Landed cost of HRC is 825 and he sells the CRC on contract at 1025 USD - but he bills the Pakistani buyer at say,Rs 225000,with a firm date of payment say,on 1st August,2022.The Pakistani sees international CRC - CIFFO rates at QASIM and with LC charges and 30 days forwards - the cost comes to 230000 - and so he agrees to buy from ISM
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samir sardana Jul 01, 2022 12:34pm
So A Tolling operation is no more than FX speculation - Part 3 Now ISM has a LC from the Buyer at 225000.He sees the FX fowards 30 days on - when he has to pay the HRC supplier at,say,Rs 10 - and so he SHORTS THE PKR IN THE FORWARD AND GETS RS 10 EXTRA AND HIS NSR ON THE LOCAL SALE IS 235000 NOW ISM IMPORT POSITION IS UNHEDGED ISM CAN WAIT TILL DAY 30 - WHEN THE PKR MAY HIT 240 OR SAY 233 AT 233 = HE HAS THE PRICE FROM THE PAKISTANI BUYER AT RS 235000 (NET) LESS THAN 233 ISM GAINS - EVEN W.O HEDGING AND MORE THAN 233 ISM LOSES IN THE NEXT 30 DAYS - ISM WILL HAVE ENOUGH TIME AND TRADES TO HEDGE THE IMPORT OR PREPAY THE SUPPLIER CASE 3 ISM IMPORTS HRC AT CAD AND PAYS THE PKR-USD N SPOT MARKET AND THEN PRICES THE CRC THE SAME DAY TO A LOCAL BUYER (AT 1025 USD/TONPRICED AT SAY SPOT IBR + 30 DAYS USD FORWARDS) SO A CRC FACTORY IS A TOOL TO EARN A TOLLING AND IMPORT DUTY ARBITRAGE MARGIN - WHICH GIVES A MARGIN OF SAFETY FOR FX TRADING
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