After being in the diplomatic freezer for some time now, there are signs that the US-Pakistan relations may be in for some thaw. This is mainly due to the new government in Pakistan prioritizing a reset in relations with Washington DC, at a time when the economy cannot afford diplomatic spats with a superpower with immense leverage, one that is also this country’s major source of export and remittance inflows.
The first signal of potential rapprochement between once-close, hitherto-estranged security allies came when Pakistan’s new young foreign minister had a bilateral meeting with the influential US Secretary of State in New York on the latter’s invitation. The US followed up with a new ambassador to Islamabad, after a gap of four years. Many positive statements and a month later, Pakistan was finally put on a path to be taken off FATF’s grey list, a development which seemed to have America’s blessings.
Lately there have also been voices within the US political establishment – both Republicans and Democrats – that have called for renewed economic engagement with Pakistan, as the latter faces an economic crisis much worse than other developing countries during surging prices of hydrocarbons and food commodity. The US Senate Leader Chuck Schumer, who recently took an aim at combative ex-Pakistan PM’s antagonistic attitude towards the US, has also suggested that the US-Pak bilateral relationship will improve under the new Shehbaz government.
There is a long way to go yet. Relations need to improve further for more tangible benefits to flow Pakistan’s way. For instance, the US has strategic heft at the IMF; it could help Pakistan get a better deal – but this has not happened just yet. The IMF has been playing hard ball, forcing a number of tough economic measures way beyond what the new government may have imagined the economic pain to be. It's time to close the deal. Given Pakistan’s past record on reforms, even multilaterals agree with Fund.
Moreover, there has not been a direct contact between President Biden and PM Shehbaz thus far. (Former PM Khan kept nursing a grudge until the end that he never got the call from Biden). Maybe the White House wants to see how things shape up on Pakistan’s political front in the coming months. If Shehbaz is judged to last in power until next year, maybe the two leaders will speak or meet on the sidelines of a global or multilateral summit (e.g. the UN).
With the war on terror in Afghanistan now in the rear view, both countries have the opportunity to redefine this relationship. Economically and strategically, Pakistan is too important a country for the US could to continue to ignore. And the US, in many ways, can support Pakistan’s economic lifeline through increased exports from and investments into this country. Both countries already share positions on global issues like climate change, global health security, combating terrorism, among others.
Since diplomacy is inherently transactional in nature, it is not clear what each country can offer to the other in order to reset the ties in a meaningful way. While the US and its European and Pacific allies are increasingly casting China as a rising threat, Pakistan (which is Beijing’s chief regional ally) cannot afford to downgrade its relations with China. Meanwhile, US have no appetite to support Pakistan’s policy on Kashmir (due to India’s sensitivities) or Afghanistan (due to US failures there). A middle ground will have to be carved by both countries, for which shrewd diplomacy is required by statesmen on both sides.
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