Aisha Steel Mills

Aisha Steel Mills (PSX: ASL) was established in 2005 as a public limited company under the repealed Companies Ordinance, 1984. It has a cold rolling mill complex and a galvanising plant located in Karachi where it manufactures and sells cold rolled coils and hot dipped galvanised coils.

Shareholding pattern

As at June 30, 2021, close to 43 percent shares are held under associated companies, undertakings and related parties. Within this category, majority shares are owned by Arif Habib Equity (Pvt) Limited. Over 20 percent shares are owned by the directors, CEO, their spouses and minor children. Within this category, Mr. Muhammad Arif Habib is a major shareholder. The local general public holds nearly 16 percent shares followed by almost 8 percent shares held in modarabas and mutual funds. The remaining over 12 percent shares is with the rest of the shareholder categories.

Historical operational performance

The company has consistently seen a growing topline since FY13, while profit margins have gradually declined between FY17 and FY20, before improving again in FY21.

In FY18, Aisha Steel's topline grew by over 34 percent nearing Rs 19 billion. However, volumes were higher only marginally by slightly over 1 percent. Although steel prices in the international market were more or less stable, this was exposed to the trade war between China and USA. This is because China is one of the largest steel producers in the world, and can create an adverse impact on local manufacturers. On the other hand, cost of production reduced to 82.5 percent of revenue, compared to over 85 percent in FY17. This allowed gross margin to rise to 17.5 percent. However, net margin reduced, although marginally, to 6.8 percent compared to over 7 percent in FY17, due to a significantly higher tax expense of Rs 632 million.

Revenue growth for Aisha Steel in FY19 was relatively subdued at 7 percent, largely attributed to an improvement in prices. GDP also stood at half of the target growth rate of 6.2 percent, while industrial growth was also notably lower at 1.4 percent compared to the target growth rate of 7.6 percent. Volumes for the company reduced by 5.48 percent at 205,456 tons. Currency depreciation, coupled with strict policy measures by the government adversely impacted demand and buying capability.Currency devaluation also affected cost of production that escalated to almost 92 percent of revenue. As a result, gross margin fell to 8.3 percent. With finance expense also consuming over 9 percent of revenue due to higher short-term borrowings for imported raw material, net margin reduced to 1.26 percent for the year.

The company’s revenue bounced back in FY20 as it grew by 47 percent to reach close to Rs 30 billion. Sales volumes were higher by 26 percent to reach 258,453 tons. Prices, on the other hand, had been fluctuating with HRC price in July 2019 at US$ 500 per ton FOB Chinathat fell to US$ 400 per ton in September 2019. It rose again in January 2020 to US$ 500. With the onset of Covid-19 pandemic, prices reduced to US$ 400. In addition, demand was adversely impacted by global events such as US-China trade war, oil price crash, UK’s exit from European Union, etc. Cost of production continued to increase, recorded at over 92 percent of revenue, that reduced gross margin to nearly 8 percent. With finance expense hiking to 11 percent of revenue, the company posted a net loss of Rs 617 million for the year.

Revenue for the company in FY21 escalated to Rs 55 billion, depicting a growth of 85 percent. Volumetrically, there was an improvement by 47 percent as sales grew to 379,622 tons. This was attributed to demand recovery as lockdowns eased related to Covid-19. Prices also improved as industrial activities resumed. This was reflected in the gross margin that was recorded at an all-time high of over 20 percent. With substantial support from other income also, net margin was also recorded at its highest of 11.5 percent, with bottomline crossing Rs 6 billion.

Quarterly results and future outlook

Revenue in the first quarter of FY22 was higher by almost 61 percent year on year.However, sales volumes have been lower by 6.4 percent at 88,834 tons compared to 94,878 tons. Despite lower sales, export volumes have risen year on year, to countries like Canada, Europe and America, compared to substantially lower exports made largely to Afghanistan in the same period last year.With a slight increase in cost of production to almost 88 percent, versus almost 87 percent in 1QFY21, profitability was lower in 1QFY22 at a net margin of 4 percent. The latter was also impacted by a rise in finance expense that consumed nearly 5 percent of revenue.

Revenue in the second quarter contracted by 4.5 percent year on year. Sales volumes were also lower by 25 percent. However, again, export sales have been better as was seen in 1QFY22. There was also a decline in HRC prices that contributed to lower revenue. With prices going down and input prices increasing, cost of production escalated to nearly 97 percent of revenue, thereby shrinking profits. The company posted a net loss of Rs 286 million compared to a profit of Rs 1.9 billion in 2QFY21.

The third quarter saw higher revenue year on year by over 14 percent. Volumes were again lower by 22 percent. The increase in revenue can be attributed to rising prices as the Ukraine-Russia conflict led to a rise in commodity prices, including HRC. But with production cost consuming over 95 percent of revenue, the company posted a net margin of 0.3 percent versus 14.5 percent in 3QFY21. With international steel prices fluctuating, in addition to China going under a lockdown again, the industry is facing challenges. There is also political instability within the country, coupled with currency fluctuation and inflationary pressures.