A costly revolution, if ever there was one

You can almost see Imran Khan salivating at the prospect of storming his revolution back to power. With Punjab in the bag once again — unless there’s some truth at the last minute, desperate claims about five mysterious deserters — and KP already his stronghold, another march on the capital must seem like a delicious idea.

And if that turns out to be too burdensome, the skipper can always order the two provincial governments to fold — Pervaiz Elahi has already said that he wouldn’t take a minute to dissolve the assembly if the order comes — forcing the centre to collapse; and then there would have to be a general election in 90 days.

Seeing how he has snatched back the initiative, the captain can most probably already see his legions of fanatic followers cheering him back to the PM house on their shoulders and claiming “haqeeqi azaadi”. The only problem is that in this phenomenal revolution of Imran Khan’s might well lie the seeds of Pakistan’s sovereign default. But don’t tell him that if you don’t like being paraded on the internet as a “traitor”.

Think about it. An election as soon as possible that sees Imran return as prime minister would teach everybody from corrupt Nawaz to cherry blossom Shehbaz to kukri Hamza to looter Zardari to diesel Fazl to arrogant Donald Lu a lesson alright, but it’s also sure to wreck the economy completely. Why do you think everybody greeted the shock Punjab by-poll result with pleasant surprise, for the winners, and rude shock, for the losers, but the markets simply fell off a cliff?

They are pricing in Imran going all in. An election in the next few months is sure to freeze the IMF (International Monetary Fund) bailout programme all over again. They say they will gladly talk to a caretaker setup, of course, but everybody knows that there are simply too many boxes to cross all the time for the central and provincial governments for the arrangement not to be disrupted.

That will put all other loan arrangements, from friendly countries as well as bi- and multi-lateral donors, on hold as well. Plus, the government would also have to go hunting for more loans. How much an interim setup would have the capacity, or even mandate, for such things is very debatable.

But the one thing you can say with certainty is that there will be a lot of uncertainty. And there’s nothing like uncertainty to spook financial markets and traders who invest in them, not even bad news which they are able to factor in rather quickly, so whatever foreign and local investment we still have in play in the country will quickly beeline for the departure lounge.

Let’s not forget that the country must make more than $40 billion in debt repayment this fiscal year, right in the thick of which Imran wants the election that will restore him as prime minister. And when we’re bending over backwards, and still failing, to get less than $2 billion from the IMF, just so our nose barely stays above water, how much trauma do you think the rest of the money will require?

Let’s not forget also that much of this is just interest payment on principal, and we’re taking more loans, on pretty high interest, mostly to pay back interest on old loans. And the point when this piles up to the extent that nobody’s willing to lend enough to kick the can a little more down the road has now finally come. So the next most likely stop after the success of this revolution is going to be sovereign default; or a very, very high price to delay it.

You can blame the corruption of the past all you want when the house of cards finally collapses, but that’ll bring little comfort to the people who will pay for it. Speaking of which, Pakistan’s proud people seem to have missed, even those that made this impossible revolution in Punjab possible, that the masters whom they’ve lent their political allegiance to are just fighting among themselves, not for them (the people).

For, if there was no no-confidence motion, Imran would not have reduced prices — that cost the kitty more than Rs 250 billion in hard cash and the country the IMF programme, and also the Saudi loan which was contingent upon the bailout programme — and the people wouldn’t have been duped into thinking that somebody at the top was finally thinking of them. And then the IMF would not have asked for stiffer “prior conditions”, and the people would not have ended up suffering a lot more amid runaway inflation and a collapsing jobs market.

At such times, the litmus test of true, even revolutionary, leadership would be putting party-, and more importantly self-interest aside and calling for an emergency to save the economy; where it’s everybody’s duty to work in the interest of the country and its people. But the captain does not care to sit with “these people who robbed the future of our children”, and he’s bent upon storming the capital, which leaves everybody else with very little choice.

This will be a costly revolution, if ever there was one.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2022