The trapped lion?

Pakistani politicians often invoke figures from the subcontinent’s history in their speeches and make favourable or unfavourable comparisons. They also like to name Pakistan’s roads, missiles, ships, buildings, parks, and other manifestations of officialdom after the kings who ruled this land.

In the same spirit, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf's (PTI) crushing victory in the Punjab by-election may give Shehbaz Sharif the dubious honor of being compared with Ala-ud-din Alam Shah, the last king of the Sayyid dynasty.

The unfortunate king’s dominion stretched over an area of ten miles, i.e., from Delhi to Palam, a malady aptly styled in the Persian saying Padshahi-e-Shah Alam az Delhi ta Palam. Indeed, if the July 22 election for Punjab’s Chief Minister goes against the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), Shehbaz Sharif will become Pakistan’s first Prime Minister in a democratic system not to have a single province under his party’s rule.

This effectively restricts his domain to Islamabad.

Prime Ministers in Pakistan need a base to solidify their party’s chances for the federal elections. This is especially true after the 18th Amendment that created a weak centre and empowered the provinces to manage education, health, development, police, and other service delivery areas.

Parties need provincial rule to demonstrate their prowess to current and potential voters. They need provincial budgets for development and political largess, whether in form of jobs or infrastructure. Control over a province can make the case for rule over the country and the space for political maneuvers, a tactic the PTI utilised when they formed the government in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa in 2013. Winning a province and enacting reforms and executing projects gave them the legitimacy for 2018. Without that win, it is doubtful if the PTI would have been able to present itself as a viable option in 2018.

Now the PML-N is in danger of breaking that critical bridge to power. If PTI’s candidate Pervez Elahi becomes the Chief Minister, the PML-N will not only lose the prized Takht-e-Lahore after almost 40 years, but also lose Pakistan’s most populous, prosperous, and politically heavy province which holds the highest number of provincial and national assembly seats. Dominance in Punjab can pave the way to Islamabad, a fact known too well to the PTI. What’s more, they will lose it to a man who has run the province well in his previous tenure and who has been promised the budget of Rs2.02 trillion for this financial year, the budget which was earmarked for Hamza Shehbaz.

Instead of getting access to Rs2 trillion and solidify his political future, Hamza Shehbaz – the man once being touted as the heir of the Sharif dynasty and a future prime minister – is in danger of having the shortest reign as Punjab’s Chief Minister.

This is in wild contrast with his father who was the longest-serving Chief Minister in Punjab’s history. His four terms total to 4,507 days. The apple would have fallen very, very far from the tree. Hamza also stands in danger of allowing cousin Maryam the pole position in the Sharif dynasty. With internal competition and family rivals breathing down his neck, Hamza will spend the next few hours on tenterhooks.

Cognizant of the danger, Shehbaz Sharif is relying on his allies including Asif Ali Zardari.

In comparison, Zardari is in an advantageous position. Unlike the PML-N, the Pakistan Peoples Party is in no danger of losing provincial rule and can stick to the strategy of being the party of rural Sindh but ruling tax-rich Karachi through their chief minister’s province. However, Zardari’s wife had once said that he is a friend to his friends and right now Zardari’s friends are his PDM allies.

By supporting the PML-N he is carrying on the sprit of self-preservation, which created the PDM and limiting the PTI’s power. The charm offensive is in full swing. Chaudry Shujaat has said that PML-Q’s candidate is only Pervez Elahi.

Meanwhile, the PTI can rest easy. Pervez Elahi is almost guaranteed to be a better chief minister than the hapless Usman Buzdar. A period of stability by a candidate who cannot threaten Imran Khan for the prime minister’s position gives PTI the breathing room to plan for elections and watch the opposition hang itself by its own noose.

Pakistan’s currency crisis is only likely to get worse over the next 12 months and the PDM, for now, has committed to completing its tenure to rule over an economic meltdown which could lead to more anger on part of the voters.

Given all this, Imran Khan can be forgiven if he thinks Christmas has come in July.

The article does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Business Recorder or its owners