NEW YORK: US natural gas futures gained about 1% on Friday on forecasts for hotter weather through mid August than previously expected, which should force power companies burn more gas to keep air conditioners humming rather than injecting the fuel into storage for the winter.
Gas-fired plants have provided over 40% of US power this month, according to federal energy data, even though gas prices were up about 52% so far in July in part because coal prices keep hitting fresh record highs. That makes it uneconomic for some generators to use their coal-fired plants.
The gas price increase came even though output was on track to reach a record high in July and the ongoing outage of the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas leaves more gas in the United States.
Freeport, the second-biggest US LNG export plant, was consuming about 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas before it shut on June 8. Freeport LNG estimated the facility will return to partial service in October. Some analysts say the outage could last longer.
Front-month gas futures for September delivery rose 9.5 cents, or 1.2%, to settle at $8.229 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Tuesday, when the August contract was still the front-month, futures soared to an intraday 14-year high of $9.752 per mmBtu.
For the week, the contract was down less than 1% after gaining about 45% during the prior three weeks.
For the month, the contract was on track to gain about 52% after falling about 33% in June. That would be its second biggest monthly gain after soaring by a record 63% in September 2009.
So far this year, the front-month is up about 123% as much higher prices in Europe and Asia keep demand for US LNG exports strong, especially since the amount of gas flowing from Russia to Europe has dropped following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24.
The United States became the world’s top LNG exporter during the first half of 2022. But no matter how high global gas prices rise, the United States cannot export any more LNG because its plants were already operating at full capacity.
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