NAPERVILLE, (Ill.): Chicago grain and oilseed futures rallied in historic fashion last week as hot and dry August forecasts threaten to curb US crop potential, but speculators had not materially changed their easing bullish views a couple days into the price spike.
Like many others in recent months, the week ended July 26 featured “round trip” price action, where CBOT corn and soybean futures fell sharply then rose again within the period. That muted overall speculative activity for the week, which had been well reflected in trade estimates.
Below average open interest has likely toned down the buying and selling, and that has been especially blatant in CBOT wheat with small fund moves despite extreme price swings. Open interest in CBOT wheat futures and options as of July 26 was down 5% from a year ago but down 13% from the same date in 2020. The one- and two- year open interest differences are the strongest in CBOT soybeans, down 18% and 25%, respectively, and for corn they are down 8% and 7%. Most active corn and soybean futures rose 0.9% and 1.9%, respectively, in the week ended July 26, though they had both been down more than 5% during the period, reaching the lowest levels since late 2021. Data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday showed the managed money net long position in CBOT corn futures and options shrinking by less than 5,000 contracts through July 26 to 120,788 futures and options contracts, mostly on the reduction of longs.
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