During the current uncertain economic and geopolitical times, the world is increasingly looking towards American leadership for reassurance that the post-War world order will hold. But it would appear, if opinion polls are any guide, that the US President, a man who is seen by many as a beacon of freedom, is in electoral trouble. As per Gallup, Joe Biden’s job-approval ratings have slumped below 40 percent, marking a low point for a President who campaigned to govern from the middle of the ideological divide.
Come November, Biden’s Democrats look like they are going to lose their slim majority in the legislative branch of the government. That may render Biden a lame-duck President, an administrator who will rely on issuing executive orders which are bound to get challenged and over-turned in the conservative-heavy supreme court. Externally, Vladimir Putin’s war at Europe’s footsteps and China’s assertiveness may keep Biden busy. Already, US House Speaker’s Taiwan visit has fueled tension in US-China relations.
But don’t count Biden out just yet. Over the past week alone, several indications have emerged that his presidency is not as log-jammed or inconsequential as many pundits would have folks believe. On one end, the American airstrike that killed the post-OBL Al-Qaeda leader in Kabul (Afghanistan) yesterday is being marked as a big counter-terrorism (CT) win for the Biden administration’s security-light foreign policy. The strike has been applauded also by Biden’s Republican rivals.
It won’t have an impact on poll numbers the same way as Obama’s OBL operation hada decade ago, but it will still count as endorsement of team Biden’s strategy to rely on remote CT capabilities. Some analysts have pointed out that this development highlights US-Pakistan cooperation in counter-terrorism, as there is likelihood that Pakistan may have helped the US locate the slain Al-Qaeda leader. If that is true, it still remains to be seen whether the security element of the bilateral is able to lift up overall mood of the relations.
Back to Biden’s fortunes, notably what has really caused observers to start paying good attention to the Biden administration’s domestic policies and agenda is the recent breakthrough on climate, healthcare and tax-related legislation. That will have long-term impact on the US government’s ability to respond to the social and development needs of its citizens. Joe Manchin, the Senator who held up the legislation for a year, was finally won over last week, paving the way for a landmark legislative victory for Democrats and Biden.
Additionally, despite the US GDP shrinking for second consecutive quarter, the fact that unemployment numbers remain at a record low, manufacturing investment is on the way up to cater production backlogs, and consumer spending is still robust, have all fueled a narrative in the US that the US economy is still in a good shape and that the feared recession is not there yet. However, rising inflation and elevated interest rates are also hard facts that weigh heavy on the pockets of many sections of the electorate.
The above gains on legislation, economy and security, however, may not be enough to save Democrats from losing control of the US Senate. A direct conflict with big powers (Russia or China) may raise electoral prospects, but Biden and his Democrats are not seeking new wars; besides, the memory of botched Afghanistan withdrawal last year is still fresh. In any case, Biden will have two more years after mid-terms later this year. Maybe the experienced politician will be able to turn things around in 2024.
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