NEW YORK: US Treasury yields dipped on Monday as investors continued to digest an unexpectedly strong jobs report from Friday and before highly anticipated inflation data on Wednesday, which will be scrutinized for how aggressively the Federal Reserve is likely to continue to raise interest rates.
Yields have risen off four-month lows reached last week as persistently high inflation, hawkish comments from Fed officials and a strong labor market dampen expectations that the US central bank will take its foot off the pedal as it seeks to dampen soaring price pressures.
Yields spiked on Friday after data showed that US job growth unexpectedly accelerated in July, with employers adding 528,000 in the month, while the level of employment rose above its pre-pandemic level.
“The jobs report was strong pretty much anyway you want to slice it, adding to the case for a 75 basis point hike in September,” said Benjamin Jeffery, an interest rate strategist at BMO Capital Markets in New York.
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Consumer price inflation (CPI) data for July released on Wednesday will be the next major economic release. It is expected to show that prices rose at an 8.7% annual pace during the month, according to the median estimate of economists polled by Reuters.
“What is most important I think is Wednesday’s CPI data to determine how large (the Fed) will opt to go in September,” said Jeffery.
Fed funds futures traders are now pricing for a 69% chance of another 75 basis points rate increase in September, and for the fed funds rate to rise to 3.65% by March, from 2.33% now.
Benchmark 10-year note yields fell to 2.794% on Monday, after getting as high as 2.869% on Friday, the highest since July 22.
Two-year yields were last 3.232%, after reaching 3.331% on Friday, the highest since June 16.
The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes was at minus 44 basis points, after getting to minus 45 basis points on Friday, the deepest inversion since 2000.
Safe haven bonds saw some demand on geopolitical concerns as China’s military announced fresh military drills on Monday in the seas and airspace around Taiwan - a day after the scheduled end of its largest ever exercises to protest against last week’s visit to Taipei by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
The Treasury will sell $98 billion in new coupon-bearing supply this week, including $42 billion in three-year notes on Tuesday, $35 billion in 10-year notes on Wednesday and $21 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday.
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