SINGAPORE: Chicago soybean futures lost ground on Tuesday, with prices facing headwinds on expectations of higher farmer sales in Argentina, a leading producer and exporter of the oilseed.
Wheat and corn gained around 1% each, with both commodities rising for a second consecutive session.
The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was down 0.3% at $14.17 a bushel, as of 0331 GMT. Wheat rose 1.5% to $8.22-3/4 a bushel and corn added 0.9% to $6.71-1/2 a bushel.
“A surge in Argentina producer soybean sales over the coming days could be negative for CBOT soybean futures, but we will have to see how producers react to the ‘soybean dollar’ in coming days,” said Terry Reilly, senior commodity analyst with Futures International in Chicago.
“Rains across U.S. Hard Red Winter wheat country is beneficial for the upcoming U.S. winter wheat planting season.”
Argentina’s farmers said on Monday the government’s decision to improve the exchange rate for soybeans exported in September is a temporary “patch” that will likely boost sales of the crop during the month, but fails to solve root issues.
Traders were also starting to adjust positions ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply/demand reports on Sept. 12. Some private analysts have revised their U.S. 2022 corn yield estimates lower in recent days, fuelling expectations that the USDA might do the same in its upcoming reports.
CBOT soybeans may test support at $14.02-1/4
Commodity brokerage StoneX last week lowered its U.S. corn yield estimate to 173.2 bushels per acre (bpa) from 176.0 in its previous monthly report. However, for soybeans, StoneX raised its yield forecast to 51.8 bpa, from 51.3 last month.
In Russia, wheat export prices fell last week under pressure from the new crop, analysts said on Monday, adding that demand from importers was rising.
Russian prices for wheat with 12.5% protein content and for supply from Black Sea ports fell by $5 to $310 a tonne free on board at the end of last week, the IKAR agriculture consultancy said in a note.
However, Ukraine is also facing a fall in wheat sowing for next year’s crop, with the Ukrainian Agrarian Council on Thursday warning the area may plunge by 30% to 40%.
Brazilian farmers will spend more to nourish crops like soybeans and corn this season, according to StoneX, reflecting a rise in prices exacerbated by the conflict in Ukraine.
Based on StoneX calculations, first corn farmers will reap the biggest crop in seven years, just below 30 million tonnes, representing a 13% rise from last year.
At the same time the 2022/2023 Brazilian soybean crop is expected to be a record of 153.6 million tonnes, up 24% from last year, StoneX said.
Large speculators raised their net long position in CBOT corn futures in the week to Aug. 30, regulatory data released on Friday showed.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly commitments of traders report also showed that non-commercial traders, a category that includes hedge funds, trimmed their net short position in CBOT wheat and cut their net long position in soybeans.
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