ISLAMABAD: National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) has sought comments from stakeholders on “open-ended” Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan 2022-31.
The revised IGCEP has been prepared on containing the base case along with the following six additional scenarios, i.e., high demand, low demand, Diamer Bhasha HPP in 2029, Chashma Nuclear (C-5) for energy security, local coal inclusion in 2027 and 2030 and unconstrained Variable Renewable Energy (VRE). Three scenarios of long-term forecast, as per prevailing Grid Code, are prepared for the Low, Normal and High GDP growth of 3.40%, 4.30% and 5.42%, respectively. In the base case, the demand and installed capacity of the whole country is 41,338 MW and 69,372 MW, respectively by the year 2031. Nepra is to conduct hearing on October 19, 2022.
The draft plan submitted by NTDC to Nepra has been prepared only as an indicative development plan for the period commencing on FY 2022 to FY 2031 as it does not contain or determine targets or ascertain liabilities pertaining to power purchase or procurement, commissioning of future power projects, regulation or determination of electricity tariff, performance or ascertainment of economic dispatch, etc., and is merely a suggested guide subject to finalization as per approval of the competent authority according to applicable law, policy and procedure.
The IGCEP has been prepared as per Planning Code (PC-4) of the prevailing Grid Code, based on proprietary input data as received from various power sector entities. In order to prepare the IGCEP, reliance is also placed on reference data and bench mark practices of international power sector entities for preparing similar plans, tariff determinations by Nepra, etc. Use of the IGCEP and/ or any portion or variation thereof shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user parties. NTDC shall not be held responsible in any manner whatsoever for the integrity, accuracy, inaccuracy, authenticity, correctness or representation of such data or consequences resulting the reform. NTDC makes no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, statutory or otherwise, including the accuracy or completeness of any data, reports, records, projections, information, or materials made available under the IGCEP and the transactions contemplated as consequence thereof.
For the study, 8,021 MW of existing power generation capacity is retired during the plan horizon, in every scenario. Hourly demand forecast is developed specially to cater for the intermittency of variable renewable energy resources such as wind and solar PV. This is particularly important in view of the aggressive targets pertaining to renewable energy envisioned by the Government of Pakistan. Hence, the energy and peak demand forecast of 87,600 hours have been estimated for the FY 2022 to FY 2031. In the base case, the demand and installed capacity of the whole country is 41,338 MW and 69,372 MW, respectively by the year 2031. It is to highlight that in the said installed capacity, the optimized share from variable renewable energy (VRE) resources include 8,350 MWp of Solar PV (utility solar & feeder based/DG) and 4,928 MW of Wind. Apart from VREs, 3,544 MW and 990 MW of hydro and local coal is optimized by this tool, respectively. In addition, the optimized local coal can be installed in any of the three blocks of Thar, i.e., Block-I, II & VI, based on the assumption that the price at all three blocks of Thar will be same; 4,320 MWp net metering solar is also added in the system, i.e., 480 MWp, every year.
However, the IGCEP 2022-31 includes export of 1,100 MW from NTDC system to K-Electric up to June 2024, which is further increased to 2,050 MW after commissioning of 500 kV KANUPP Karachi Interconnection (KKI) grid station by K-Electric. Two power projects will also be retired during this period.
NTDC argues that the IGCEP is an indicative development plan and confirmation of any new generation project for future procurement shall be subject to approval of respective competent authority as per applicable criteria prescribed in prevailing policies, rules and regulations.
The IGCEP is exclusive of any costs relating to power system evacuation and transmission system expansion for optimized generation project. The transmission system expansion and related costs shall be allocated to the optimized generation project following the approval of the transmission system expansion cost allocation criteria by CCI. This may impact the selection/ optimization or ranking of the optimized generation project for which NTDC shall in no circumstances be held liable or accountable.
NTDC maintains that any user or third party relying on the IGCEP or the Plan in any way shall do so at their own commercial, financial and legal risks for which they are encouraged to seek independent legal advice. NTDC makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, statutory or otherwise in relation to the information provided herein and its suitability for any project. NTDC expressly disclaims any and all responsibilities or liability whatsoever for loss or damages that may result from use of the IGCEP or portions or variations thereof and all users and the parties including affiliates and third parties hereby expressly acknowledge and agree to waive any and all recourse against NTDC and hold it harmless for their reliance upon the IGCEP, i.e., the Plan including any intended or unintended consequences.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2022
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