Asian currencies were broadly flat as investors stuck to the sidelines ahead of highly-anticipated US inflation data after minutes from a US Federal Reserve meeting reiterated that rates would likely remain higher for longer.
A strong US inflation print could reinforce expectations of aggressive Fed policy tightening, weighing on riskier assets.
Minutes from the Fed’s September meeting, where they delivered a 75 basis points (bps) hike, showed policymakers headstrong in their battle against inflation as they saw the cost of doing too little outweighing the cost of doing too much.
“I think the message is a similar one … no pain, no gain,” said Moh Siong Sim, a currency strategist at Bank of Singapore, referring to the idea that without higher interest rates there would be no economic gain in terms of lower inflation.
“It sends a message that they mean business, and the market has taken on that message.”
The Malaysian ringgit lost 0.1%, as political uncertainty also weighed. Malaysian Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob on Monday called an early election after the country’s constitutional monarch agreed to his request to dissolve parliament.
Vietnam’s dong slumped 0.7% to a record low of 24,100 to the dollar. Other Asian currencies traded broadly flat.
The larger market catalyst will be the US inflation print for September due later in the Asia day. Headline inflation is expected to have pulled back but core inflation is expected to have accelerated, according to Reuters poll data.
Asian FX sell-off deepens; won rises on BOK hike
US producer prices rose more than expected in September, data showed. IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong believes this upside surprise suggests consumer prices may also come in above expectations.
In India, September retail inflation came in above expectations, reaching a five-month high and remaining above the upper limit of the central bank’s target range for three quarters now.
The rupee fell a marginal 0.1% at the open. Analysts at ING believe the Indian central bank will wrap up this tightening cycle at the December meeting, with a 25 bps hike.
The Singapore dollar rose 0.1% ahead of GDP numbers and a monetary policy decision due on Friday. Many analysts believe the Monetary Authority of Singapore will tighten policy.
Benchmark yields in Singapore and Malaysia fell for the first time in seven and five sessions, respectively. Singapore’s 10-year yield fell 2.3 bps to 3.514%, while Malaysia’s eased 1.4 bps to 4.432%.
China’s 20th Communist Party Congress will also begin on Sunday.
Most equity indices in Asia trended lower, with stocks in Singapore sliding 1.2%, while those in Taiwan lost 1.3%. However, markets in the Philippines and Indonesia rose 0.7% and 0.2% respectively.
Markets in Thailand were closed for a public holiday.
Highlights:
** China Semiconductor Industry Association opposes US export controls
** South Korean household loans from banks decrease in September, biggest fall in over a year
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