MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is expected to jump against the dollar on Friday, after softer-than-expected US inflation prompted bets that the Federal Reserve will pivot to a slower pace of rate hikes.
The rupee is tipped to open at around 80.70-80.80 per US dollar, its highest level in almost seven weeks and up from 81.8075 in the previous session.
The dollar index and Treasury yields plunged, while US equities soared on signs that inflation was turning a corner. The headline US consumer price index and the core inflation both rose less than expected in October.
The relief on the inflation reinforced the likelihood that the Fed will opt for smaller rate hikes from its December meeting onwards.
The probability of a 50-basis points (bps) hike in December reached 80%, from nearly 55% ahead of the data. Fed Chair Jerome Powell had signalled after the November policy decision that a moderation in the size of hikes was possible.
The inflation data made it highly likely that the Fed will step down from the 75-bps hikes it had delivered in the last four meetings.
Indian rupee tipped to open tad lower ahead of US inflation data
“This is a rare moment of good news on inflation,” ING Bank said in a note.
The Fed will keep hiking but the latest reading outcome “is very supportive” for it to step down to a 50-bps hike at the December meeting. Reflecting this, near-maturity Treasury yields collapsed.
The dollar index dropped 2%, its biggest decline in many years.
Asian currencies rallied, with the Korean won climbing almost 2%. Hong Kong equities rose 5%, matching the overnight rally on the S&P 500 Index.
“At such times, when there is a tendency to get carried away, it would be good to identify support levels (for USD/INR),” a Mumbai-based trader said. “We see two major ones at 80.40 and at 80.00.”
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