Geneva pledges a success, but immediate assistance for flood victims unlikely: expert

The amount of support Pakistan marshalled in Geneva as it made the case of rebuilding its country after devastating floods is a major success, but immediate support to the millions that desperately need food and health assistance may still be some time away, a foreign policy expert said.

“At a time of global economic stress and donor fatigue, it’s impressive that Pakistan secured (nearly) $10 billion in pledges—especially with the floods having largely disappeared from international media headlines,” Michael Kugelman, director of the newly-created South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington D.C., told Business Recorder in an exclusive interview.

“This is a major success.”

Kugelman, however, warned that an overzealous narrative may not be the right approach.

“Let’s remember these are merely pledges, not actual contributions. The funding hasn’t yet been formally committed. Not to mention, most of the pledges will be paid out as loans. And a lot of this will take several years.”

Pakistan is currently desperate for dollar inflows as its economy reels from one of its worst crisis in history with official reserves held by its central bank hitting an almost nine-year low at $4.3 billion — the country’s imports stood at over $5.1 billion in December alone, according to provisional figures available with the country’s bureau of statistics.

Additionally, record monsoon rains and melting glaciers submerged nearly a third of the country last year, displacing some 8 million people and resulting in at least 1,700 deaths in a catastrophe blamed on climate change.

With concerns over massive debt obligations gaining weight in the wake of the developments, many saw the government’s presence in Geneva, where the country co-hosted the ‘International Conference on Climate Resilient Pakistan’ and secured nearly $10 billion in pledges from multilateral and bilateral contributors, as a massive positive, especially seeing that inflows from other avenues have been hard to come by. The amount surpassed Pakistan’s goal as it eyed generating $8 billion from the international community.

Kugelman said that while the government would emphasise the self-congratulatory rhetoric, the pledges are “not about to bring immediate assistance to the millions that desperately need food and health assistance”.

“It’s not surprising that the government would downplay these realities in its public messaging,” he added.

The expert, however, said the diversity of contributors defies the “narrative espoused by its critics that it is globally isolated”.

“On a numeric level, the response hasn’t been as large as it was after Pakistan’s 2010 floods. But we have seen this time around, consistently, a wide array of bilateral and multilateral funders pledging assistance.

“The diverse group of contributors illustrates that the world is willing to rally to Pakistan’s side, showing that there is strong support around the emerging norm that countries hit hard by climate change should get global assistance.”

Kugelman said multilaterals stepped up in Geneva, but while there was a diverse group of bilateral contributors, the amount pledged by them was significantly lower.

“Another notable difference was how much more of a response there was from this one-off conference compared to repeated earlier UN flash appeals.

“The UN flash appeals consistently failed to meet their goals. And yet, according to Islamabad, expectations were surpassed in Geneva. Why was this the case?

“Maybe it was heavy advance advocacy by Pakistan and by the UN. Even though, to be frank, Islamabad doesn’t appear to have prioritized flood relief at home, in its engagements abroad and in its messaging targeting foreign audiences, it has repeatedly called for assistance.

Meanwhile, the UN secretary general has taken a strong, personal interest in helping Pakistan post-floods and perhaps he had tried to lobby in advance for donors to step up. Another factor to keep in mind is that UN climate summit in Egypt that took place just weeks ago.

“I suspect some donors wanted to use this conference as an example of their commitment to upholding the emerging norm of the world mobilising to help climate-impacted countries, and especially those countries that suffer disproportionately from global warming even though they contribute relatively little to it.”

Kugelman said Gulf countries, not known for “being paragons of climate change mitigation”, also saw an opportunity to showcase their commitment by making a major pledge to help a country hit by a catastrophic climate change-induced event. However, he was quick not to oversimplify the situation.

“Seen strictly from a geopolitical lens, Pakistan has longstanding friendly ties with most Gulf states, and with others in the Islamic World, and so it wouldn’t be a surprise if these nations made notable pledges simply because they’re expressing their solidarity with Pakistan. But we also shouldn’t overlook the climate norm explanation.”

‘Way forward with Afghanistan is dialogue’

Kugelman, also a leading specialist on Pakistan, Afghanistan, and India, and their relations with the United States, said Islamabad needs to pursue the route of dialogue with the Taliban, remarks that come as tensions simmer between the two neighbours.

“The Taliban are keen to assert their independence from Pakistan. This has contributed to the sparring over Pakistani border fencing.

“But it is really the Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP) issue that most reflects the current tensions. The Taliban have longstanding ideological and operational ties to the TTP. The one thing they did to offer help to Pakistan with its TTP concern—mediate talks—is now a moot point, given that the talks have failed.

“This leaves Pakistan with the option of doing nothing or launching some type of offensive.

“The way forward, of course, is dialogue. The two sides need to keep talking. A key focus, moving forward, should be border security.

“If the two sides can reach some type of accord on managing the border, that would be a big confidence building measure. But this has long been an elusive goal.

Kugelman said the stakes are high because worsening Afghanistan-Pakistan tensions could lead to more instability within the region. “It could also impact important border trade —such an important process, especially now, with both countries experiencing severe economic stress.”

Pursuit of Russian oil

Commenting on Pakistan’s pursuit of Russian energy, Kugelman said the US is unlikely to be “overly concerned”, especially seeing the volume and nature of bilateral trade.

“If there were to be an agreement, we wouldn’t be talking about large amounts of oil. Not to mention, I’m not sure if the logistics would be in place for Pakistani imports of Russian oil—and to make sure they’re in place, there would need to be ample cooperation and trust.

“But there’s not all that much to Pakistan-Russia relations. Only in recent years have the two sides started exploring great cooperation, and much of that was tied to potential Russian investment in Pakistan’s gas sector, and that was all quite aspirational and exploratory.

“Also, the US and other Western countries, if they were to take issue with any potential Pakistani oil imports from Russia, could reasonably be branded as hypocrites. Given that many European countries still heavily rely on Russian energy, how can you criticise Pakistan for importing some Russian oil? It wouldn’t be a credible critique for the US and the West to make.

“That doesn’t mean the critique wouldn’t be articulated, but it would frankly be best for the US and the West to hold their tongue on this issue.”

Kugelman’s remarks came as Pakistan began bilateral talks with a Russian delegation on Tuesday on long-term oil and a liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade deal as well as the construction of a $3-billion Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline (PSGP) project, according to an official of the Petroleum Division.

The delegation, comprising 80 members, started three-day talks under the forum of the Inter-Governmental Commission (IGC).

Pakistan is desperately looking at cheaper avenues of energy in the face of a bulging import bill that, coupled with a rupee value seemingly out of sync with market fundamentals and a stalled International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, is only adding to the country’s economic woes.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2023