ISLAMABAD: Power Division is said to have prepared three load shedding scenarios from March 1, 2023 to September 2023, along with fuel requirements and required funding during this period and place the entire scheme at the highest level.
The proposed load management plan is under three scenarios i.e. two hours, three hours and four hours, depending on generation and availability of required funds. Ramazan will also commence in the last week of March.
The load shedding will start at a time when the government will increase electricity tariffs substantially i.e. by Rs 3.39 per unit under the garb of additional surcharge across the board in addition to QTAs and FCAs as per agreement with the IMF and recovery of deferred bills from flood-hit consumers.
There are indications of differences between Islamabad and the IMF on the duration of applicability of additional surcharge on consumers.
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Well informed sources told Business Recorder that the projected peak demand in March will be 17,602 MW, April 22,183 MW, May, 23, 533 MW, June 26, 610 MW, July, 26,610 MW, August 26,300 MW and September 23,184 MW. However, peak generation (ATC excluding) in March will be 16,562 MW, 20,993 MW, 22,593 MW, 25,593 MW, 24,939 MW, 23,710 MW and 21,935 MW in April, May, June, July, August and September 2023 respectively.
The projected peak shortfall will be 950 MW in March, 1,190 MW April, 940 MW May, 1,441 MW June, 1,422 MW July, 2,590 MW July and 1,249 MW September respectively.
According to sources, Discos unleash load shedding of about 3,000 MW in summer under the garb of Aggregate Technical and Commercial (AT&C) losses. If the quantity of peak shortfall sans ATC is accounted for, total shortfall from March to September would be between 3500 to 7000 MW, which implies that the consumers have to face load shedding of 6-9 hours.
The sources said, total cash cover of Rs 2.280 trillion will be required for two hours’ load shedding, Rs 2.183 trillion for three hours and Rs 2.106 trillion for four hours’ duration of load shedding. Of this, CPPA-G will arrange Rs 1.945 trillion for one hour, Rs 1.874 trillion for two hours and Rs 1.821 trillion for three hours’ load shedding
For two, three and four hours’ load management, forex cover of $ 1.280 billion will be required whereas $ 410 million, $ 343 million and $ 299 million will be required for two, three and four hours for import of coal. Cash cover of Rs 175 billion, Rs 164 billion and 142 billion will be required for RFO for load management of two hours, three hours and four hours.
The sources said, Power Division has a subsidy Rs 335 billion for load shedding for one hour, Rs 309 billion for two hours and Rs 285 billion for three hours.
The sources maintained that total derated capacity will be 39,176 MW in March of which 22,525 MW will not be available. Likes, 18,184 MW in April, 16,583 MW May, 14,007 MW June, 14,238 July, 15,238 MW August and 17,279 MW in September respectively.
Total peak operational capacity of 16,652 MW will be available in March, 20,993 MW in April, 22,593 MW May, 25,169 MW June, 24,939 MW July, 23, 710 August and 21,935 MW in September respectively.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2023
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