Pakistan has India to its east, Afghanistan to its northwest and Iran to its west while China borders the country in the northeast. The nation is geopolitically situated within some of the most controversial regional boundaries that are disputed by neighbours and that have many a time led to escalation military tensions between neighbouring nations.
India on the east and Afghanistan on the northwest are the two neighbours of Pakistan that need to be closely watched. The last column on the subject focused on India while this one is in relation to Afghanistan.
Pakistan’s relationship with Afghanistan has witnessed many ups and downs since former’s independence in 1947.
Pakistan is perceived to have been instrumental in the Taliban takeover of Kabul in mid-August of 2021.The swiftness with which the Taliban completely routed the Ashraf Ghani government in Afghanistan took the US and allied forces by surprise.
They very much wanted to move out of Afghanistan but not in panic that they had to endure to move out of Afghanistan. Pakistan is looked upon by the West as one of the influences that made this happen.
Pakistan continues to back Afghanistan amidst its diplomatic and economic isolation by its persistent call for removal of Western sanctions and resumption of development aid to this landlocked country.
Moreover, it is using its close ties with the Taliban to convince them through quiet diplomacy as well as public messaging to go further in meeting donors’ demands on governance, including respect for basic rights, as well as counter-terrorism commitments.
However, in a one year’s time, Islamabad’s leverage over its perceived asset appears to be fading as numerous irritants have emerged. Pakistan’s efforts to secure its border with Afghanistan to prevent an influx of refugees and infiltration by Pakistani militants based in Afghanistan constitute a point of contention.
The Taliban’s apparent refusal to break up relationship with their Pakistani counterparts, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, is of great concern to Pakistan. The Taliban are reported to be prevailing upon Islamabad to negotiate and work out an amicable settlement with Pakistani Taliban.
Uncertainty and economic hardship have led to instability in Afghanistan with consequences for Pakistan. The Taliban’s failure to take action against Pakistani militants operating from the Afghan territory has once again started to surface in Pakistan with attacks on civilian and security forces. Instability in Afghanistan could once again force the impoverished Afghans to seek shelter in Pakistan amidst its economic and political crisis.
Growing instability in Pakistan and in Afghanistan constitutes a grave concern. For a long time, Pakistan has been bracketed with Afghanistan by the West when it comes to global security. A politically and economically turbulent Pakistan could add a new dimension to this global concern.
With the fast changing global scenario and Afghanistan not shaping up on the world map as perceived, Pakistan faces difficult challenges in formulating its policy toward Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. Pakistan’s tilt toward Afghanistan has strained its relations with the US and other Western countries.
The withdrawal of the then Soviet Union from Afghanistan in 1989 and subsequent withdrawal of the US and allied forces from Afghanistan left a vacuum. That situation was very well capitalized by a hurriedly- established force of Taliban who ultimately captured Kabul in 1996.
Pakistan’s hopes on Afghanistan were elevated in perceiving Afghanistan as its strategic depth and an asset. Subsequent developments did not hold this true. Also, the renewed enthusiasm of Pakistan on the recent takeover of Kabul by Taliban did not hold ground.
On both the occasions - September 1996 and August 2021 - Pakistan’s tilt and perceived influence over Afghanistan strained its relations with the US-led West as Pakistan could not meet their expectations on its policy towards Afghanistan with their persistent call for Pakistan “to do more”.
Despite such differences and consequences, Pakistan is unlikely to abandon its Afghan allies. The price is too high in view of historical and ethnic relations between the two neighbours.
Pakistan, however, needs to strike a delicate balance between its long-time alignments with Taliban and the much-needed relations with the US and its allies. Pakistan is therefore required to clearly demonstrate its sincerity of heart and purpose to show to the entire world that it is only an honest facilitator and mediator for peace along the Afghanistan - Pakistan axis. It is needless to say that when we are of sincere heart and purpose we harbor no hidden agendas.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2023
The writer is a former President, Overseas Investors Chamber of Commerce and Industry
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