March inflation soars to 35.4pc, highest since 1965

ISLAMABAD: The Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation increased to 35.4 percent on a year-on-year basis in March 2023 as compared to an increase of 31.5 per cent in the previous month and 12.7 percent in March 2022, says the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

The CPI in the first eight months (July-March) of the current fiscal year on average remained at 27.26 per cent compared to 10.7 per cent during the same period of the last fiscal year.

On month-on-month basis, it increased to 3.7 per cent in March 2023 as compared to an increase of 4.3 per cent in the previous month and an increase of 0.8 per cent in March 2022.

CPI inflation Urban, increased to 33 per cent on year-on-year basis in March 2023 as compared to an increase of 28.8 per cent in the previous month and 11.9 per cent in March 2022.

Pakistan’s CPI inflation reading in March clocks in at 35.4% YoY

On month-on-month basis, it increased to 3.9 per cent in March 2023 as compared to an increase of 4.5 per cent in the previous month and an increase of 0.7 per cent in March 2022.

CPI inflation Rural, increased to 38.9 per cent on year-on-year basis in March 2023 as compared to an increase of 35.6 per cent in the previous month and 13.9 per cent in March 2022.

On month-on-month basis, it increased to 3.5 per cent in March 2023 as compared to an increase of 4 per cent in the previous month and an increase of 1 per cent in March 2022.

The Sensitive Price Index (SPI) inflation on YoY increased to 40.4 per cent in March 2023 as compared to an increase of 33.6 per cent a month earlier and 13 per cent in March 2022.

On MoM basis, it increased by 5.8 per cent in March 2023 as compared to an increase of 3.7 per cent a month earlier and an increase of 0.6 per cent in March 2022.

The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation on YoY basis increased to 37.5 per cent in February 2023 as compared to an increase of 36.4 per cent a month earlier and an increase of 23.8 per cent in March 2022. On MoM basis, it increased by 4.7 per cent in March 2023 as compared to an increase of 8.2 per cent a month earlier and an increase of 3.9 per cent in corresponding month of last year i.e. March 2022. Measured by non-food non-energy Urban increased to 18.6 per cent on YoY basis in March 2023 as compared to an increase of 17.1 per cent in the previous month and 8.9 per cent in March 2022. On MoM basis, it increased by 2.5 per cent in March 2023 as compared to an increase of 2.2 per cent in previous month, and an increase of 1.2 per cent in corresponding month of last year i.e. March, 2022.

Measured by non-food non-energy Rural increased to 23.1 per cent on YoY basis in March 2023 as compared to an increase of 21.5 per cent in the previous month and 10.3 per cent in Mar 2022. On MoM basis, it increased by 2.4 per cent in March 2023 as compared to an increase of 2.6 per cent in previous month, and an increase of 1.1 per cent in corresponding month of last year i.e. March 2022.

Measured by 20 per cent weighted trimmed mean Urban increased to 28.7 per cent on YoY basis in March 2023 as compared to 25.1 per cent in the previous month and 10.5 per cent in March 2022. On MoM basis, it increased by 2.7 per cent in March 2023 as compared to an increase of 2.9 per cent in the previous month and an increase of 0.8 per cent in corresponding month of last year i.e. March 2022.

Measured by 20 per cent weighted trimmed mean Rural increased to 35 per cent on YoY basis in March 2023 as compared to 31.6 per cent in the previous month and 11.7 per cent in March 2022.

On MoM basis, it increased to 2.9 per cent in March 2023 as compared to an increase of 3.9 per cent in the previous month and an increase of 0.8 per cent in corresponding month of last year i.e. March 2022.

The Urban Consumer Price Index for March 2023 is increased to 3.90 per cent over February 2023 and increased to 32.97 per cent over corresponding month of the last year i.e. March 2022.

On MOM basis top few commodities which varied from previous month in food which increased include Cigarettes (70.34 per cent), Tea (28.46 per cent), Fresh Fruits (20.04 per cent), Tomatoes (13.17 per cent), Sugar (12.49 per cent), Beverages (11.76 per cent), Potatoes (11.26 per cent), Wheat (8.29 per cent), Wheat Flour (7.84 per cent), Cooking Oil (7.04 per cent), Fresh Vegetables (6.22 per cent), Beans (5.43 per cent), Vegetable Ghee (5.05 per cent), Milk Fresh (4.50 per cent), Rice (3.30 per cent), Gram Whole (2.25 per cent), Pulse Mash (1.73 per cent), Bakery and Confectionary (1.23 per cent), Besan (1.11 per cent), Mustard Oil (0.95 per cent), Meat (0.82 per cent), Pulse Moong (0.47 per cent) and Dry Fruits (0.35 per cent) and decreased Onions (25.94 per cent), Eggs (12.42 per cent), Chicken (3.66 per cent), Pulse Gram (1.51 per cent) and Pulse Masoor (0.20 per cent).

Among non-food items which increased include Cotton Cloth (13.3 per cent), Household Equipments (10.56 per cent), Motor Vehicles (6.73 per cent), Electricity Charges (6.21 per cent), Marriage Hall Charges (5.53 per cent), Stationery (5.37 per cent), Construction Wage Rates (3.75 per cent), Transport Services (3.65 per cent), Motor Vehicle Accessories (3.28 per cent), Household Textiles (3.13 per cent), Motor Fuel (3.09), Electrical Appliances for Personal (1.73 per cent), Construction Input Items (1.32 per cent), Education (1.25 per cent), Medical Tests (1.20 per cent), Tailoring (1.15 per cent) and Household Servant (1.12 per cent) and decreased include Liquefied Hydrocarbons (3.25 per cent).

On YoY basis top few commodities which varied from corresponding month of previous year i.e. February, 2022 and increased in food include Onions (257.62 per cent), Cigarettes (171.17 per cent), Tea (105.19 per cent), Wheat (94.32 per cent), Eggs (83.60 per cent), Rice (82.41 per cent), Wheat Flour (69.98 per cent), Gram Whole (65.15 per cent), Pulse Moong (58.27 per cent), Besan (56.18 per cent), Wheat Products (54.13 per cent), Pulse Gram (53.78 per cent), Pulse Mash (53.52 per cent), Cooking Oil (53.51 per cent), Fresh Fruits (51.31 per cent), Dry Fruits (48.07 per cent), Beans (43.61 per cent), Chicken (41.93 per cent), Vegetable Ghee (41.49 per cent), Potatoes (41.4 per cent), Mustard Oil (37.52 per cent), Beverages (36.8 per cent), Milk Fresh (35.86 per cent), Pulse Masoor (26.94 per cent), Fish (22.35 per cent), Condiments and Spices (22.17 per cent), Meat (20.83 per cent), Sugar (19.43 per cent) and Fresh Vegetables (18.93 per cent) and decreased in Tomatoes (33.46 per cent).

Among non-food items which increased include Text Books (74.02 per cent), Motor Fuel (71.61 per cent), Stationery (67.00 per cent), Gas Charges (62.82 per cent), Motor Vehicles (45.54 per cent), Household Equipments (41.93 per cent), Motor Vehicle Accessories (39.64 per cent), Construction Input Items (37.58 per cent), Marriage Hall Charges (32.29 per cent), Electricity Charges (31.73 per cent), Transport Services (30.56 per cent), Furniture and Furnishing (29.20 per cent), Tailoring (24.30 per cent), Mechanical Services (24.16 per cent), Doctor (MBBS) Clinic Fee (22.86 per cent), Construction Wage Rates (18.87 per cent), Household Servant (18.41 per cent), and Dental Services (13.60 per cent).

The Rural Consumer Price Index for March 2023 is increased to 3.48 per cent over February 2023 and increased to 38.88 per cent over corresponding month of the last year i.e. March 2022.

On MOM basis top few commodities which varied from previous month in food items which increased include Cigarettes (70.44 per cent), Fresh Fruits (31.3 per cent), Potatoes (17.65 per cent), Beverages (13.63 per cent), Tomatoes (10.13 per cent), Sugar (9.55 per cent), Pulse Mash (7.12 per cent), Vegetable Ghee (5.82 per cent), Cooking Oil (5.34 per cent), Condiments and Spices (5.09 per cent), Milk Fresh (4.01 per cent), Rice (3.91 per cent), Fresh Vegetables (3.42 per cent), Bakery and Confectionary (3.23 per cent), Wheat Flour (1.78 per cent), Gram Whole (1.70 per cent), Meat (1.58 per cent), Besan (1.42 per cent) and Wheat (0.78 per cent) and decreased in Onions (30.58 per cent), Eggs (12.20 per cent), Mustard Oil (2.31 per cent), Chicken (2.06 per cent), Pulse Masoor (1.95 per cent), Pulse Gram (0.37 per cent) and Pulse Moong (0.20 per cent).

Among non-food items which increased include increased include Stationery (8.67 per cent), Household Equipments (7.88 per cent), Electricity Charges ( 6.21 per cent), Appliances/Articles/ Products for Personal Care (4.36 per cent), Motor Vehicles Accessories (4.01 per cent), Footwear (3.65 per cent), Motor Fuels (3.24 per cent), Tailoring (2.29 per cent), Medical Tests (1.98 per cent), Construction Wage Rates (1.89 per cent), Construction Input Items (1.89 per cent), Transport Services (1.50 per cent), Education (1.36 per cent), Text Books (1.15 per cent) and Marriage Hall Charges (1.10 per cent) and decreased in Liquefied Hydrocarbons (2.92 per cent).

On YoY top few commodities which varied from corresponding month of previous year, ie, February, 2022 in food which increased include Onions (302.69 per cent), Cigarettes (144.09 per cent), Wheat (88.25 per cent), Rice (81.04 per cent), Eggs (75.34 per cent), Fresh Fruits (72.56 per cent), Wheat Products (68.00 per cent), Gram Whole (64.96 per cent), Pulse Moong (64.23 per cent), Pulse Mash (63.92 per cent), Besan (59.00 per cent), Condiments and Spices (58.33 per cent), Pulse Gram (56.56 per cent), Wheat Flour (53.59), Chicken (47.01 per cent), Potatoes (42.36 per cent), Beans (40.26 per cent), Milk Fresh (39.88 per cent), Mustard Oil (38.85 per cent), Cooking Oil (37.08 per cent), Vegetable Ghee (36.34 per cent), Pulse Masoor (31.81 per cent), Beverages (31.50 per cent), Meat (19.24 per cent), Sugar (15.91 per cent) and Fresh Vegetables (12.71 per cent) and decreased in Tomatoes (31.14 per cent).

Among non-food items which increased include Motor Fuels (76.09 per cent), Text Books (71.28 per cent), Stationery (43.23 per cent), Transport Services (39.25 per cent), Motor Vehicles Accessories (38.75 per cent), Construction Input Items (35.23 per cent), Electricity Charges (31.73 per cent), Marriage Hall Charges (31.23 per cent), Motor Vehicles (25.77 per cent), Motor Vehicle Tax (24.88 per cent), Household Textiles (24.50 per cent), Dental Services (23.52 per cent), Footwear (19.45 per cent), Doctor Clinic Fee (19.10 per cent), Mechanical Services (16.90 per cent), Construction Wage Rates (16.80 per cent), Medical Tests (13.04 per cent), Education (12.49 per cent), Hospitals Services (7.21 per cent), Accommodation Services (7.08 per cent) and House Rent(6.9 per cent).

The Wholesale Price Index for March, 2023 increased by 4.67 per cent over February, 2023. It increased to 37.52 per cent over the corresponding month of the last year i.e. March, 2022.

On MOM basis top few commodities which varied from previous month and increased include Tobacco Products (61.31 per cent), Air Conditioners (59.42 per cent), Hard Board (42.86 per cent), Matches (39.78 per cent), Salt & Pure Sodium Chloride (34.01 per cent), Cotton Fabrics (30.23 per cent), Printing Paper (28.92 per cent), Furnace Oil (25.12 per cent), Fresh Fruits (21.84 per cent), Raw Animal Materials / Wool (21.59 per cent), Radio & Television (21.22 per cent), Silk & Rayon Fabrics (17.36 per cent), Bed Sheets (17.26 per cent), Other Fabrics (16.67 per cent), Wheat Flour (15.35 per cent), Dyeing Material (15.2 per cent), Stimulant & Spice Crops (14.82 per cent), Coffee & Tea (14.16 per cent), Sugar Refined (13.81 per cent), Woolen Carpets (13.22 per cent), Beverages (12.14 per cent) and Fruit Juices (12.08 per cent) and decreased in Eggs (12.93 per cent), Fibre Crops (9.74 per cent), Poultry (7.03 per cent), Vegetables (5.2 per cent), Kerosene Oil (3.7 per cent), Millet / Bajra (1.59 per cent), Chemicals (1.24 per cent), Steel Bar & Sheets (0.85 per cent), Natural Gas Liquefied (0.45 per cent) and Pesticides (0.16 per cent).

YoY basis top few commodities which varied from previous year and increased include Lighting Equipments (387.16 per cent), Tobacco Products (149.05 per cent), Matches (130.2 per cent), Stimulant & Spice Crops (124.27 per cent), Chuff Cutter (119.8 per cent), Printing Paper (103.16 per cent), Dry Fruits (100.37 per cent), Wheat (97.85 per cent), Air Conditioners (97.45 per cent), Pipe Fittings (88.28 per cent), Wheat Flour (86.75 per cent), Eggs (86.48 per cent), Motor Spirit (81.08 per cent), Dried Fruits & Nuts (78.2 per cent), Glass sheets (77.85 per cent), Diesel Oil (73.09 per cent), Maize (69.4 per cent), Fresh Fruits (68.81 per cent), Rice (68.27 per cent), Pulses (65.29 per cent), Silk & Rayon Fabrics (64.14 per cent), Cultivators (61.75 per cent), Coffee & Tea (61.05 per cent), Vegetables & Fruit Juice (60.44 per cent), Other Fabrics (60.06 per cent), Other Cereal Flour (59.04 per cent), Concrete Mixture (56.22 per cent), Auto Tyres (55.73 per cent), Beverages (55.2 per cent) and Steel Products (53.63 per cent). Decreased: Fiber Crops (1.77 per cent) and Spices (1.22 per cent).

AFP adds: Pakistan’s year-on-year inflation hit 35.37 percent in March — the highest in nearly five decades — as the government scrambled to meet International Monetary Fund (IMF) conditions to unlock a desperately needed bailout. Month-on-month inflation was 3.72 percent, according to government data released Saturday, while the average inflation rate for the past year was 27.26 percent.

Years of financial mismanagement and political instability have pushed Pakistan’s economy to the brink of collapse, exacerbated by a global energy crisis and devastating floods that submerged a third of the country in 2022.

The country needs billions of dollars of financing to service existing debt, while foreign exchange reserves have dwindled and the rupee is in freefall. Poor Pakistanis are feeling the brunt of the economic turmoil, and at least 20 people have been killed since the start of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan in crowd crushes at food distribution centres. “The way inflation is rising, I believe a famine-like situation has been simmering,” said Shahida Wizarat, a Karachi-based analyst. At least 12 people were killed Friday in a crowd crush in Pakistan’s southern city of Karachi at a factory distributing Ramadan alms.

The South Asian nation — home to more than 220 million — is deep in debt and must enact tough tax reforms and push up utility prices if it hopes to unlock another tranche of a $6.5 billion IMF bailout and avoid defaulting.

Inflation is expected to stay at “elevated” levels, the finance ministry said, “owing to market frictions caused by relative demand and supply gap of essential items, exchange rate depreciation and recent upward adjustment of administered prices of petrol and diesel.”

Copyright Business Recorder, 2023