There have been too many firsts in American political history that are directly associated with Donald Trump. Adda big one, after the indictment of this ex-President earlier this week over a ‘hush money’ payment during 2016 presidential elections that allegedly led to campaign-finance violations and falsification of business records. Historic, yes – but hardly surprising, considering that Trump and co. have been taken to court many times over past several decades, ending mostly in settlements, not convictions.
It’s ironic, however, that Trump would find himself in the dock today over something unrelated to serious, far-reaching breaches of American constitution and law. For instance, he tried to subvert a peaceful transition of power after he lost the 2020 presidential election to Joe Biden, openly coercing state-level officials to change results. In addition, his very-public and forceful incitement of a mob on January 6 has been linked with the unprecedented attack on the US Capitol, the seat of the American legislature.
The current trial is expected to linger for at least a year, a timeline which has raised interesting questions. How will it impact the next year’s presidential elections (late 2024)? Will a criminal conviction force Trump, who has already announced he is running next year, to back down? How will the Democrats’ prospects next year be affected if the charges are eventually not proven in court? More long-term, will this episode provoke in American politics a tit-for-tat that is the hallmark of weak democracies and failed states?
More troublesome, if Trump somehow became President again despite a criminal conviction (there are no US laws that can stop a convict from running for or holding the highest office), how will it affect America’s prestige overseas and its democratic credentials and messaging for a world that is increasingly getting divided between democracies and autocracies? There are no clear answers. For now, Trump’s stock is expected to go up among the right-wing, conservative corners of US politics as well as populists abroad.
Trump is shrewdly playing the victim card, blaming Democrats for yet another investigation after two failed impeachments and one Russia-collusion inquiry that eventually got nowhere. This narrative would likely help him to poach some of the attention that has been attracted by rising Republican stars such as the 44-year-old Florida governor Ron DeSantis. However, if Trump eventually succeeded in winning the Republican nomination next summer, a criminal conviction may backfire with the broader electorate.
Already, the Congressional hearings on January 6 riots reportedly played a role in voters defeating many Trump-endorsed candidates in the 2022 mid-terms. Democrats, therefore, may like to see Trump instead of DeSantis as their opponent next year. Trump getting popular due to this criminal case may indirectly help Biden’s stock among those Democrats who are eager to field a younger candidate. Biden has beaten Trump before, and no credible in-party competitor has surfaced so far. Interesting times lie ahead.
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