Want to know about the state of Pakistan’s economy? Don’t ask ChatGPT

ChatGPT, the controversial but popular chatbot powered by artificial intelligence that has been asked by users to write poetry, do their homework and even find mistakes in their coding in a matter of seconds, is said to be the world’s fastest growing app.

According to UBS research, the platform was estimated to have reached 100 million monthly active users back in January, just two months after launch, making it the fastest-growing consumer application in history.

Analysts in the report went as far as to say: “In 20 years following the internet space, we cannot recall a faster ramp in a consumer internet app.”

It is also facing growing scrutiny, but that is a separate topic.

AI bot ChatGPT faces growing scrutiny in Europe

We checked what the bot has to say about the most burning topic in Pakistan right now – the economy? Turns out, nothing useful.

Right off the bat it tells me that its response is “based on the information available up to my knowledge cutoff date in September 2021”.

This means it’s not taking into account anything that happened in the last year and a half. Given the speed at which things have been happening in that period, in particular since April 2022 when Imran Khan was ousted as prime minister (notably the rupee hitting all-time lows against the dollar, inflation reaching peaks never heard of before, and talks with the IMF regarding a bailout programme dragging on for months, I wasn’t sure there was any point reading on.

When asked if IMF will give Pakistan money, the question throwing the country into a tizzy, the bot answered that this will depend on a variety of factors. It also said: “There are no guarantees the IMF will provide financial assistance to Pakistan or any other country.” Well, I guess that part is right.

But for the sake of well, this article, I decided I would.

ChatGPT notes that Pakistan’s economy faces various challenges, including high inflation, fiscal imbalances, external sector pressures and social development issues such as poverty and unemployment.

Yes, some of those hold true but at this point I felt the same I did last time I had my palm read – the answers I was getting could be made to fit the situation of any other person, or in this case many other developing countries.

It then says the government of Pakistan has been implementing economic reform measures, including tax reforms, efforts to attract foreign investment and structural reforms in key sectors.

Well, maybe but it was reported this week that the government has failed to fully implement the World Bank recommended major tax reforms for enhancing revenue collection by Rs737 billion.

ChatGPT: the promises, pitfalls and panic

If efforts have been made to attract foreign investment, they have not fared well. BR Research published a piece called ‘FDI outlook: simply not good!’ back in February in which it pointed out that “Pakistan’s has never really had a very impressive foreign investment scorecard … unfortunately, the foreign investment situation currently has no bright prospects as the country economically is in a greater mess than ever before… Foreign direct investment during the ongoing fiscal year has been abysmal“.

Offering some ray of hope, although by this point it’s just making me depressed, ChatGPT points out that Pakistan has potential opportunities, including its strategic geographic location, a young and growing population and natural resources.

When asked if IMF will give Pakistan money, the question throwing the country into a tizzy, the bot answered that this will depend on a variety of factors, including the country’s economic citation, its ability to meet the IMF’s requirements and the IMF’s assessment of its policies and reforms.

Nothing about ‘assurances of assistance from friendly countries’’; the Finance (Supplementary) Bill, 2023 with taxation measures; or the mess the current finance minister has made.

It also said: “There are no guarantees the IMF will provide financial assistance to Pakistan or any other country.” Well, I guess that part is right.

The bot can also be a bit repetitive. Earlier I had asked it to elaborate on the issue of lack of foreign investment, and it said: “There are a number of reasons for this, including political instability, security concerns, and a difficult business environment. “

When asked why the rupee has depreciated, it pinpointed these same three factors.

None of this is inaccurate per say but it is unable to explain the situation given the current economic climate and context and would likely not be a sufficient replacement for a trustworthy news source.

An AFP report even noted that ChatGPT in its current form “still gets stuff wrong.”

“To give one example, it thinks Guatemala is bigger than Honduras. It isn’t. Also, ambiguous questions can throw it off track,” the report said.

What is ChatGPT anyway?

The company behind the bot is OpenAI, co-founded by Elon Musk (though he stepped down from the company’s board in 2018) and investor Sam Altman. Its an AI research and deployment firm whose mission “is to ensure that artificial general intelligence benefits all of humanity.”

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Before using the platform there are plenty of disclaimers clarifying that this is a free research preview launched with the intention of gathering external feedback in order to improve OpenAI’s systems and make them safer.

It goes on to say that the system may occasionally generate misleading or incorrect information and produce offensive or biased content and also clarifies that the platform is not intended to give advice.

The disclaimers bring to mind a chatbot by a tech giant that went very wrong, albeit that was 7 years ago: Microsoft’s Tay.

Tay was a chatbot set up by Microsoft in March 2016, except it was meant to sound like a teenage girl.

As per a story in The Guardian: “In the 24 hours it took Microsoft to shut her down, Tay had abused President Obama, suggested Hitler was right, called feminism a disease and delivered a stream of online hate.”

However, the tech has come a long way since then. AI is even bigger now than it was in 2016, and Microsoft is well aware. So much so it’s extended its partnership with OpenAI and invested $10 billion in ChatGPT.

Not to be too harsh because the bot does have many uses. A few weeks ago a friend who works at a university messaged saying: “Guys. ChatGPT. My mind is blown. I will never do my work myself” to which another replied: “OMG yes for 2 weeks it’s written all my job descriptions. But also so freaky”.

The first friend went on to say: “I saw my colleague get all the content for his webpage. He kept giving it prompts and it would incorporate it ALL e.g. ‘expand to 250-300 words’, ‘use the phrase academic excellence’, ‘add bullets on benefits for faculty’.

Another friend says he uses it “primarily to shorten large bodies of texts I have written to make them more cohesive and to bounce ideas off of.”

“It’s very good. Limited of course but great as an assistant,” he added.

So yes, use it but with caution. As for understanding Pakistan’s economic dramas, definitely stick to the news.

The article does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Business Recorder or its owners