For a bilateral relationship already suffering from a ton of historical baggage, mistrust and missed opportunities, two major events this month have ensured that the ties will remain frozen in place, for the foreseeable future. With both countries set to go into elections within a year’s time, few could seriously hope for a major breakthrough in the Indo-Pak equation. In the interim, however, opportunities to lower the temperature should be utilized – something which is really not happening.
The first missed opportunity was the Pakistani Foreign Minister’s visit to Goa (India) to attend the SCO’s ministerial conference and his Indian counterpart’s visibly-cold reception and biting remarks afterwards. To show the regional powers (mainly China and Russia) that they were committed to the SCO’s platform, India invited the Pakistani FM (but chose to later give him a cold shoulder), and the Pakistani side also showed maturity to attend at the highest level (despite tensions with India and facing no tangible upside).
While the much-more experienced Indian foreign minister’s undiplomatic attitude towards FM Bilawal can be attributed mainly to the latter’s scathing remarks about Indian PM Modi not so long ago, it showed India’s diplomacy in a poor light despite hosting a major regional summit. Much more cool and composed, the Pakistani FM went through the summit formalities with relative ease. He also caught quite a lot of diplomatic and media spotlight, which seemed to further frustrate his host, resulting in some outbursts.
The result of such poor optics is that not only are the two establishments drifting further apart, their respective positions are also appearing to harden, with no intermediary in sight to urge caution. After a hopeful pause in rhetoric, the Pakistani side has again started to link resumption of talks with India reversing its August 2019 Kashmir annexation. The Indian side, despite witnessing Pakistan getting off of the FATF grey list and facing economic and security crises, has again dialed up the ‘stop terrorism’ tone.
The other missed opportunity is in ‘Cricket,’ which has traditionally offered diplomatic respite in difficult circumstances over past decades. While major international teams have been touring Pakistan for some years now, India is reportedly refusing to send its team to participate in the Asia Cup happening later this year in September in Pakistan. After trying hard to make India’s BCCI change its mind, Pakistan’s PCB sees little option but to boycott its own matches in India-hosted World Cup a few months after.
With no confidence-building measures in sight and as highly-partisan elections approach (especially in India), the deteriorating diplomacy potentially raises the stakes in case events like February 2019 bring both countries to direct confrontation again. The two nuclear-armed neighbors, having fought several wars, cannot afford any miscalculations. Therefore, it is important to at least pause the diplomatic salvos for now and hope for better days to come when the two countries can sit together and improve relations.
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