SHANGHAI: China’s yuan inched lower against the dollar on Tuesday as an unexpected contraction in factory activity fuelled worries that a recovery in the world’s second-largest economy remained fragile and uneven.
China’s manufacturing activity unexpectedly shrank in October, an official factory survey showed on Tuesday, underlining the challenges facing policymakers trying to engineer a durable economic recovery. Most economists had expected marginal growth.
“If this initial set of data is representative of what will follow for the rest of the quarter, it should still be enough for China to hit its 5% GDP target for 2023 though on slower incremental growth in the fourth quarter of 2023,” said Robert Carnell, regional head of research for Asia-Pacific at ING.
“That said, 5% is a low hurdle, and reaching it doesn’t mean that all of China’s growth worries are over.”
Prior to the market opening, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the midpoint rate, around which the yuan is allowed to trade in a 2% band, at 7.1779 per dollar, 2 pips firmer than the previous fix of 7.1781.
The central bank continued to set the official guidance rate stronger than market projections, traders and analysts said, a move they widely consider to be an attempt to prevent rapid yuan declines.
Tuesday’s midpoint was 1,245 pips firmer than a Reuters estimate of 7.3024.
China’s yuan eases, market awaits financial policy conference
In the spot market, the onshore yuan opened at 7.3132 per dollar and was changing hands at 7.3171 at midday, 56 pips softer than the previous late session close.
Trading was tepid, with spot yuan swinging in a very tight range of 47 pips in morning deals. Trading volume shrunk to $3.8 billion, sharply lower than the normal half-day trading volume of about $15 billion.
“Yuan depreciation pressure still persists,” said a trader at a Chinese bank, referring to the weaker-than-expected PMI data.
Some traders said they will shift their attention to the outcome of the US Federal Reserve policy meeting due on Wednesday, as any rate adjustment and official comments are expected to affect dollar and other major currencies, including the yuan.
A Reuters poll showed that the Fed will keep its key interest rate on hold on Nov. 1 and may wait longer than previously thought before cutting it, as the US central bank’s higher-for-longer message gains traction.
By midday, the global dollar index rose to 106.408 from the previous close of 106.12, while the offshore yuan was trading at 7.327 per dollar.
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