ISLAMABAD: The higher markup payments, on the expenditure side, will continue to pose significant challenges for fiscal consolidation efforts and inflation is estimated to hover around 27 to 29 percent for October 2023.
According to the monthly economic update and outlook for October 2023 uploaded by the Finance Ministry, in the coming months the overall economic activity will remain positive throughout the outgoing fiscal year due to a rebound in domestic economic activities and improvement in inflationary pressures.
The first quarter of fiscal year 2024 demonstrates that the economy is yielding positive results from the development and government stabilization measures.
Pakistan’s headline inflation reading clocks in at 31.4% in September
According to the Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) for Rabi 2023-24, cotton production is provisionally estimated at 11.5 million bales showing a bumper increase of 126.6 percent over the last year. Rice production estimated at 8.6 million tonnes showing an increase of 18.0 percent compared to last year.
Sugarcane and maize production declined by 10.7 percent and 6.1 percent to 78.5 million tonnes and 10.3 million tonnes, respectively, compared to the period under review. The FCA has fixed the production target of wheat for Rabi 2023-24 at 32.12 million tonnes on an area of 8.9 million hectares based on satisfactory input situation.
For Rabi crops 2023-24, the outlook is positive as the seed availability and supply of urea and DAP, however, the water availability is anticipated to be short by 15 percent for Punjab and Sindh during the season.
The agriculture credit disbursement during July-August 2024 was recorded at Rs336 billion as compared to Rs226 billion last year, an increase of 44 percent.
Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) grew by 0.5 percent during July-August fiscal year 2024 against the contraction of 1.3 percent in the same period last year and in July-September 2024. the performance of the auto-industry remains subdued due to a massive increase in input prices, and tightening auto finance. Car production and sale decreased by 49.1 percent and 43.9 percent.
The sale of petroleum products slumped by 16 percent during July-September fiscal year 2024 to 3.77 million tons against 4.49 million tons in the same period last year. While in September 2023, oil sales are dwindling around 1.06 million tons, down by 31 percent year-on-year and 25 percent month-on-month.
Cement dispatches significantly grew by 23.4 percent and reached to 11.873 million tons during July-September fiscal year 2024, against 9.621 million tons last year.
Federal revenues increased by 54.7 percent during July-August2024 as opposed to last year due to a sharp rise in non-tax collection while the Federal Board of Revenue’s tax collection grew by 27.5 percent.
Under social sector, the Benazir Income Support Program is providing support to 770,000 lactating mothers and infants through 488 Facilitation Centres spread across Pakistan. The external account has also improved and foreign exchange buffers are being built up.
At the fiscal front, the government’s fiscal consolidation efforts and fiscal discipline are evident through better fiscal accounts during July August fiscal year 2024.
Total foreign investment during July-September fiscal year 2024 recorded an inflow of $ 412.0 million as against $ 319.7 million in the last year. The FDI stood at $ 402.3 million ($ 349.8 million last year) increasing by 15 percent.
Foreign Private Portfolio Investment has registered a net inflow of $ 9.5 million during the period under review.
There are anticipations that inflation will be better contained compared to the elevated levels observed in the first quarter of fiscal year 024. The projection of inflation is hovering around 27 to 29 percent for October 2023.
The BoP data for September 2023 reveals that exports of goods and services increased marginally by 0.6 per cent on month-on-month basis, while imports of goods and services decreased by 5.9 per cent.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2023
Comments
Comments are closed.