CANBERRA: Chicago wheat futures on Monday slipped further from last week’s four-month high as speculators held onto bearish positions despite the strongest run of US wheat sales to China in years. Soybeans regained ground after a higher than expected US government estimate of Brazilian production eased supply concerns last week. Corn futures also rose.
“China’s wheat imports are continuing to pick up and already exceeded last year’s record level of nearly 10 million tons by 1.5 million tons in November,” said analysts at Commerzbank, adding that wheat futures should hold on to their gains.
The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was down 1% at $6.25-1/2 a bushel by 0654 GMT after reaching $6.49-1/2 last Wednesday, its highest since Aug. 9. The sale of a whopping 1,120,000 metric tons of soft red US wheat to China last week helped trigger short-covering that lifted prices 15% over eight consecutive trading sessions.
CBOT wheat is still up around 11.5% from market open on Nov. 28. However, even after abandoning many bearish bets, speculators and funds hold a historically heavy net short and were net sellers of CBOT wheat on Friday, traders said.
Also on Friday, the USDA in a monthly report cut its forecasts of US 2023/24 wheat ending stocks to 659 million bushels and of global wheat ending stocks to 258.20 million metric tons, both estimates below analyst expectations. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s farm ministry raised its 2023 grain harvest forecast to a record high, with 22.2 million tons of wheat, 5.8 million tons of barley and 30.1 million tons of corn.
In other crops, CBOT soybeans rose 0.5% to $13.11 a bushel and corn gained 0.3% to $4.86-3/4 a bushel. The USDA cut its production forecast for Brazil’s next soybean harvest by 2 million tons to 161 million tons, above analyst expectations and still a record crop.
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