Who could’ve known that Yemeni Houthis, battered and broken after almost a decade of ugly war, will light the fuse that, possibly, sparks a wider war and redefines the Middle East’s political/security calculus? Their drone, missile and helicopter attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea have spooked commercial operators away from the crucial trade artery, forcing them to take the longer and more expensive route across the Cape of Good Hope at the bottom of Africa instead, and spiking volatility in insurance, oil and gas markets.
They’ve also got Washington weighing its options. So far, it’s announced a joint naval force to protect Red Sea trade – Operation Prosperity Guardian – without confirming which countries would join or how they’d keep vessels safe. And it’s also threatened “possible military strikes” to hit the “militant group at its source”, which would imply that nobody’s really impressed by the maritime task force.
Container shipping giant AP Moller-Maersk A/S chief executive Vincent Clerc told Bloomberg that the Pentagon hadn’t yet detailed how the operation would protect ships, and reckoned that it would take a few weeks, at least, for it to take off. But if natural gas price jumped by as much as 13pc, before retreating the next day, when oil and gas behemoth BP Plc announced a temporary halt of Red Sea travel on Monday, and oil moved one percent and stayed there, what are they going to do about commodity markets in those “few weeks” as the Houthis remain active?
Shippers are refusing to go there without protection. Major shipping companies including Italian-Swiss giant MSC, France’s CMA CGM, Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd, Belgium’s Euronav and Denmark’s AP Moller-Maersk have all stopped using the route until further notice, according to Australia-based broadcaster ABC News. These companies move major consumer goods between Asia and Europe, and now have to reroute around Africa, which means around $1 million in extra cost and a 7-10 day delay.
Besides, there’s also confusion about what the security arrangement will look like. Bloomberg also quoted Jakob Paaske Larsen, head of maritime safety and security at shipping industry group Bimco, who said that a strict convoy – where military ships escort vessels – was probably “less likely” because “it’s so resource-intensive”.
He also said that “commercial operators are only going to return to the area when they can be assured of the effectiveness of security provisions being implemented” and “with the latest announcements it is difficult to see how this is being achieved”.
But if Prosperity Guardian seems complicated, try warping your head around a possible strike on the Houthis. The only reason the US and its allies haven’t yet bombed them is that they’re firmly backed by Iran. And Tehran’s been itching for Israel’s genocide in Gaza to trigger fault lines that will make it impossible for Washington to extend an indefinite blank cheque to Tel Aviv. Striking the Houthis now risks drawing Iran and its militias into open war which, if anything, will not exactly enable containers to waltz through the Red Sea and calm capital markets.
It would be a particularly bad idea when Hezbollah is already threatening to jump into the war if Israel continues to target civilians inside Lebanon.
The Lebanese resistance movement’s threat came after an Israeli missile hit a Hezbollah fighter’s funeral procession in the town of Ayta ash Shab in the south.
That happened just around the time The Times and Newsweek reported that the Israeli military had finalised plans to invade Lebanon with the intent to push Hezbollah back from border towns.
America’s regional allies are not so sure either, especially Saudi Arabia. The kingdom borders Yemen, was responsible for most if not all of the near-380,000 deaths (including 85,000-plus children) in a war backed by the US, and has just made peace with Iran and halted hostilities against the Houthis. And surely neither Riyadh nor oil market traders have forgotten the 2019 drone strike, claimed by the Houthis, that knocked out half of Saudi’s oil production.
The Saudis favour diplomacy, knowing full well that the Houthis will not relent till the bombing in Gaza stops. And Saudi Arabia is not going to risk more drones hitting its oil installations, not to mention unravelling the peace deal with Iran, just because the American government will not stop Israel from killing innocent civilians so Netanyahu can prolong his stay in office. Hence the pushback from the heart of the Middle East.
But Biden is running out of time to stamp his authority in a volatile region, especially as the war’s volatility now creeps into financial markets. The Republicans would never waste an opportunity to pressure him so close to the election campaign. And, sure enough, Senator Roger Wicker, the top Republican on the senate armed services committee, led the charge and called for more aggressive action, rubbishing the idea of the naval force and putting the White House on the back foot.
“What exactly would a task force accomplish?” he asked. “The continuing threat posed to American sailors and freedom of navigation could soon lead to a catastrophe unless the Biden administration acts with the resolve that it has so far sorely lacked”.
Is it really strange that of all the countries and entities that fumed at the US for supporting Israel’s genocide, it is the Houthis, already struggling to survive, that are changing the game? They have lost far, far more innocent men, women and children because of the Saudi-led war than Palestinians have put in early graves because of Israeli barbarism. Who can deny that their fearlessness has now made them battle hardened?
A small grain of truth can be found in the analysis of Kori Schake, director of foreign and defence policy at the American Enterprise Institute, widely quoted in international media.
“The Houthis have rightly gauged the Biden administration’s risk tolerance, which is very low”, he said. “This is one more example of the US moving troops around to signal a commitment when we’re actually not committed”.
On top of the Ukraine war, in which America’s European allies have already lost interest, and Israel’s aggression, which the whole world has turned against, Washington must now also put its muscle where its mouth is in the Red Sea.
From the looks of it, the Houthis seem to have whipped up the perfect storm at just the right time.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2023
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