NEW YORK: US natural gas futures slipped on Friday and recorded their biggest percentage fall for the year since 2006, under pressure from record production, ample inventories in storage and relatively mild weather conditions.
Front-month gas futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 4.3 cents, or 1.7% lower, at $2.51 per million British thermal units.
The front-month contract fell nearly 44% in 2023, its first annual fall in four years, which is also its biggest fall since 2006. The contract has also lost more than 10% so far this month in a second consecutive monthly loss.
Prices have fallen sharply from around $10 per mmBtu reached last year on a Russia-Ukraine war-fuelled rally, but as those concerns eased, futures started 2023 at around the $4 level before declining further as drillers ramped up production.
Prices are “reflecting very bearish market fundamentals, which are record production, weak demand thanks to the warmer-than-normal weather, and weak foreign demand as well,” said Zhen Zhu, managing consultant at C.H. Guernsey and Company in Oklahoma City.
“We are projecting a storage level at the top of the five-year band at the end of the coming injection season,” Zhen added, saying that if this turns out to be true, prices will have no hope of going anywhere in the new year unless abnormal weather and production conditions prevail.
Data from LSEG showed that average gas output in the Lower 48 US states has risen to 103.5 bcfd so far in 2023 from a record 98.4 bcfd in 2022.
The continental United States also entered the winter heating season with the most natural gas in storage since 2020, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said earlier this month.
US utilities pulled 87 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas out of storage last week, according to the weekly EIA report. Stockpiles stood at 3.490 trillion cubic feet (tcf), about 11.1% above the same week a year ago and 10% above the five-year average.
LSEG forecast US gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, at 129.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week, up from last week’s 119.5 bcfd. Demand was further projected to rise to 136.9 bcfd during next week as forecasts for January get colder.
“The natgas market’s outlook depends on what kind of weather we’re going to have in the first quarter,” said Thomas Saal, senior vice president for energy at StoneX Financial.
Gas flows to the seven big US LNG export plants have risen to an average of 14.6 bcfd so far in December, up from a record 14.3 bcfd in November.
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