Rupee ends appreciation run, settles at 281.89 against US dollar

The Pakistani rupee ended its 13-session appreciation run against the US dollar, declining 0.01% in the inter-bank market on Tuesday, the first trading session of 2024.

As per the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the rupee settled at 281.89 after a decrease of Re0.03.

During the year 2023, the rupee registered a depreciation of 19.7% to settle at 281.86.

Also read: When a stick reduces the pain: rupee still sees one of its worst years in 2023

The decline came on account of economic challenges including a rising external financing gap, challenging global financial markets, and local political instability.

Since the turn of the century, the PKR has depreciated in 19 out of the 23 years, with 2023 emerging as the fourth-worst. Only the years 2008, 2018, and 2022 have been worse.

In a key development, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Executive Board is scheduled to consider the first review under Pakistan’s current $3 billion stand-by arrangement (SBA) on January 11, 2024.

Globally, the US dollar rose on the first trading day of the year as attention turned to economic data this week that may provide clues on the Federal Reserve’s next moves, while bitcoin surged above $45,000 for the first time since April 2022.

The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six rivals, fell 2% in 2023, snapping two years of gains.

It was last at 101.54, up 0.158%, as investors weighed the prospect of the Fed cutting rates this year.

The dollar’s ascent weighed on the Japanese yen the most, with the Asian currency down 0.54% at 141.63 per dollar, having slid 7% in 2023.

Rescue teams in Japan on Tuesday struggled to reach isolated areas hit by a powerful earthquake on New Year’s Day, with reports of more than 20 people dead in a disaster that toppled buildings and knocked out power to thousands of homes.

Markets are now pricing in an 86% chance of interest rate cuts from the Fed to start from March, according to CME FedWatch tool, with over 150 basis points (bps) of easing anticipated in the year.

Oil prices, a key indicator of currency parity, jumped in the first session of the New Year, boosted by the chances of Middle East supply disruptions after a naval clash in the Red Sea, as well as hopes of strong holiday demand and an economic stimulus in China, the top importer of crude.

Brent crude rose $1.28, or 1.7%, to $78.32 a barrel by 0438 GMT while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $72.69 a barrel, up $1.04, or 1.5%.

Inter-bank market rates for dollar on Tuesday

BID Rs 281.89

OFFER Rs 282.09

Open-market movement

In the open market, the PKR lost 10.00 paisa for buying and 4.00 paisa for selling against USD, closing at 280.04 and 282.53, respectively.

Against Euro, the PKR lost 90.00 paisa for buying and 83.00 paisa for selling, closing at 307.24 and 310.16, respectively.

Against UAE Dirham, the PKR lost 18.00 paisa for buying and 16.00 paisa for selling, closing at 76.15 and 76.86, respectively.

Against Saudi Riyal, the PKR lost 24.00 paisa for buying and 28.00 paisa for selling, closing at 74.42 and 75.12, respectively.

Open-market rates for dollar on Tuesday

BID Rs 280.04

OFFER Rs 282.53