2024—Business winds and waves

Goodbye 2023. A year that was tentative, testing and turbulent. The world became more uncertain and businesses more uncomfortable.

Economies faced the dual challenge of inflation and recession. Political economy was troublesome and ominous. 2024 is thus welcomed with almost a sigh of hope and anticipation. As they say, a new year, a new beginning. A safer and saner world is expected.

A more steady and stable world economy is predicted. A more secure and sustainable business world is hoped for. Whether these expectations and hopes will be met depends on how organizations and institutions adapt and satisfy the most cynical and disillusioned of citizens.

The industrial crystal ball is showing all sorts of options .Business forecasters are over-occupied in creating scenarios. Consultants are flipping their advisory hats and taking out their magic planners. Data scientists are sifting tons of numbers and studies to craft graphs and trends. Some are painting 2024 with green, others with orange.

Technology geeks are buzzing with their AI advantage. All of above are stakeholders in the business fortune telling industry. Every analyst has his own story to tell. In this race of who predicts the best, 4 safe bets on which to hinge upon 2024 trends are:

1- Generation Insta, “click and get” — The Gen Zee has become Gen AI (Artificial Intelligence) and basically will be Gen I (instant and now) in 2024. Huge numbers of pre-teens in 2020 are teenagers in 2024. In the most troublesome of ages when they require calm and stability, they have been surrounded by trouble, turbulence and instability. Two years of abnormal isolation in Covid.

Two years of overdose of social media. The consequent stress levels and anxiety are beating all records. Overstimulation is reducing the attention span of the Generation Insta.

Thus they want “As soon as possible (asap) mood boosters”. They want instant relief. They want distraction. They hop from site to site. They want exactly, entirely and instantly what they need/desire. While browsing through sites they want to click and consume on the touch. Companies may have to change the JIT (just in time) models to COD models, i.e., Consume on Demand.

The case in point-the consumer clicks on his favourite clothing style, gets a reply and delivery almost immediately. On food items it just may be in minutes.

2- Workplace maze — The most common complaint before 2020 by employees was that “no time for home”. Covid shut that out. Post Covid remote working is still on. Are people happy? NO. People at home are caught in between the desire to be away from home and the additional responsibility that comes from being with family. The problem is still work-life balance.

The office environment is a change from home. The office perks of separate workplace allows more focus and more work done. It is a change of place and scenario.

The home gets neglected. But if they stay at home they go crazy in multiskilling and multitasking. Family seeing them at home does not realize they are at work and keeps expecting and piling work on them.

Thus work/life balance is even more elusive and confusing. HR people need to upskill themselves on understanding this stress and provide solutions to it. 2024 is also going to see Artificial Intelligence sweeping in.

Organizations will have to deal with massive fear, uncertainty and protests by workers who see this as the end of their careers. Operational level workers may be replaced by the virtual assistants. A proactive planning exercise needs to be done to plan rightsizing, upskilling and job redesigning.

3- Purpose beyond business – Business in 2024 is going to face a tough challenge of authenticity, of values and of conduct and behaviour. Businesses are going to be judged and penalized not just by a very whimsical and fickle consumer but a very stable and sticky citizen reaction.

The biggest brand, the most fabulous social media presence, the most glitzy PR image will be at test from a public that has a louder voice than any advertising blitz blaring day in and out of every media avenue. The recent war between Israel and the Palestinians is a case in point.

Gone are the days when the propaganda machine and slick marketing of the companies managed to overwhelm the cries of protest. In October, shoppers threatened to boycott Starbucks over its criticism of its workers union’s deleted tweet that expressed solidarity with Palestinians. Zara faced massive boycott due to one of its ads.

The campaign portrayed a model carrying a mannequin wrapped in white cloth that resembled the type of Muslim burial shrouds that have covered the Gazans killed in the war.

The company has since apologized and withdrawn the Advert. These citizens’ voice power is now too global to be overpowered by the clout of big business and political muscle. 2024 business behaviour has to adapt and adopt code of ethics that are acceptable to much wider domains of publics.

4- Smart but not smart enough? 2024 will see the war between artificial and real intelligence intensify. As machines become learned, humans will become more fearful. The concept that humans cannot be beaten as the human brain is far too superior may be correct but not in totality.

Human brain neurons are still outnumbering machines, but machines are dedicated to use each one of them with 100% efficiency. Human focus ability is limited by its emotional and physical wonderings and distractions. Machines are just made to learn, analyze and also decide.

This poses a threat to workers and organisations that are in denial of this reality. 2024 will be a battle of technology up-gradation, AI adaptation and work redesigns. Videos that show AI replica robots sitting as anchors and reading news are sending chills down the spines of the celebrity anchors.

Rather than getting frozen and reactive it is time for most traditional job holders to assess where they can provide more value than their clones. With the AI robots looking beautiful and handsome and speaking flawlessly, they also do not to play politics and disrupt the culture that humans do. 2024 will be a time for the humans to outdo their own copies through more intelligent, smarter and value added work.

2024 will mark as the last year before we enter the second quarter of the post millennial era. So far this quarter has not lived up to its expectation of growth, equality and justice in the world.

This year is an opportunity for atonement- for countries to revisit their contribution to the world order and disorder. For companies to revisit their conduct to not just align it to the powerbrokers but to their own professed values. And for each citizen of the world to start by changing themselves before wanting to change the world.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024