CANBERRA: Chicago soybean futures regained some ground on Thursday but remained near their lowest levels since December 2021 amid lacklustre demand for US exports and an improved supply outlook from South America.
Corn futures rose but were close to their lowest since December 2020. Wheat also gained.
The most active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was up 0.9% at $12.47-1/4 a bushel by 0404 GMT after slipping to $12.34 on Tuesday. However, prices were still down nearly 4% so far this month.
Recent rains mean Brazil’s harvest will be better than what many had feared and Argentina’s will also be sizeable, said Rabobank analyst Vitor Pistoia, adding that the wider oilseed market was well supplied.
The price outlook for soybeans was “neutral or bearish”, Pistoia said.
With harvesting now underway, crop agency Conab projected a 155.3 million metric ton 2023/24 crop, around 5 million tons less than it previously forecast but still a record high.
Conab also said Brazil should remain the world’s top soybean exporter, even if its 98.4 million ton export projection is slightly below the 101.8 million tons shipped in the 2022/23 season.
In Argentina, the Rosario grains exchange raised its estimate for the 2023/2024 soybean harvest by 2 million tons to 52 million tons.
The Buenos Aires grains exchange said soybean and corn planting would see favourable weather over the next few days, further easing supply concerns.
On the demand side, concern is growing over weak US export sales.
It has been weeks since the US Department of Agriculture reported a flash sale of soybeans or corn. US soybean exports this season are well behind last year, with cheaper Brazilian beans dominating the market.
Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT soybeans on Wednesday while buying corn and wheat, traders said. CBOT corn was up 0.3% at $4.61 a bushel after falling as low as $4.52 on Monday and Tuesday.
Prices have been pushed down by a record US crop. Conab said Brazil’s production would fall to 117.6 million tons and its exports would decline to 35 million tons this season from 56 million tons in the last.
However, Argentina’s 2023/2024 corn harvest should reach a record 59 million metric tons, the Rosario grains exchange said, raising its forecast by three million tons. Wheat was up 0.4% at $6.13-1/4 a bushel.
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