CANBERRA: Chicago soybean futures climbed on Friday ahead of a US government crop data release that could shift the market, but prices were still set for a fourth straight weekly loss due to weak demand for US exports and an improved supply outlook.
Corn and wheat futures both inched lower and were on track for weekly falls.
The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was up 0.3% at $12.40-1/2 a bushel by 0434 GMT, after slipping to $12.34 on Tuesday and Thursday, its lowest since December 2021. The contract was down 1.3% so far this week.
Low US shipments and ample supply are pressuring prices, said Andrew Whitelaw at consultants Episode 3.
But he said traders would be wary that US and British attacks on targets in Yemen could expand conflict in the Middle East and push up oil prices, lifting soybeans and corn, which are used for ethanol and biofuels.
US soybean exports this season are behind last year’s level, with top producer Brazil dominating the market following a record 2022/23 harvest.
Dry conditions have hit Brazil’s current soybean crop, but recent rains stabilised yields.
Forecaster Patria Agronegocios on Thursday predicted a 143.18 million metric ton 2023/2024 harvest but the government’s prediction is around 155 million tons, similar to last season. Favourable weather is also improving prospects for Argentina’s soybean farmers.
EU 2023/24 soybean imports, rapeseed down
The Rosario exchange this week raised its 2023/24 soybean harvest estimate for the country to 52 million metric tons.
Traders were waiting for the release of quarterly USDA grain stocks data and a monthly agricultural supply/demand report later on Friday, which could set the tone for prices for the coming weeks.
Analysts expect the USDA to report a jump in US corn and wheat stockpiles from a year-ago levels, but lower stocks of soybeans.
CBOT corn dipped 0.1% to $4.57-1/2 a bushel after hitting $4.52 on Monday and Tuesday, its weakest since December 2020, amid plentiful supply.
It was down 0.7% from last Friday’s close and on track for a fifth consecutive weekly fall.
The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its forecast for 2023/24 global corn production by 7 million metric tons to 1.230 billion tons, with higher Chinese production offseting lower expected yields in Brazil.
For wheat, the IGC increased its 2023/24 world production outlook by 1 million tons to 788 million.
CBOT wheat was down 0.1% at $6.03-1/4 a bushel and 2% lower for the week, its second weekly fall in a row.
Prices remain near September’s three-year low of $5.40 thanks to strong supply from Russia.
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