Soybeans hover near 2-year low on positive supply outlook

CANBERRA: Chicago soybean futures inched up on Thursday but remained close to two-year lows as traders bet the market would continue to be well supplied despite concerns that the harvest in top producer Brazil could be smaller than some expect.

Corn futures also rose slightly but were just above their lowest in three years and wheat was little changed near a seven-week low.

Ample supply holds Chicago soybeans near two-year low

Fundamentals

• The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was up 0.3% at $12.09 a bushel by 0107 GMT after falling to $12.03 last Friday, its lowest since November 2021.

• CBOT corn rose 0.2% to $4.43-1/4 a bushel after hitting $4.40 on Wednesday, the lowest since December 2020.

• Wheat was flat at $5.82-1/4 a bushel after slipping to $5.77 on Tuesday.

• All three contracts have fallen between 6% and 7.5% so far this month.

• Rains in South America have boosted the outlook for soybean and corn supplies, while the wheat market remains awash with cheap Black Sea grain.

• Some private forecasts for Brazil’s soybean crop have come in sharply below official estimates, with EarthDaily Agro predicting a 2023/24 harvest of 149.2 million metric tons.

• But Brazilian soybean production would have to fall far below that level to prevent output from rising among South American exporters as a whole, with Argentina in particular set for a bumper crop of soybeans and corn.

• Brazilian soybeans are outcompeting US beans in export markets, and the US dollar has strengthened this month, making US products less attractive to foreign buyers.

• The US Department of Agriculture meanwhile said last Friday that US stockpiles of soybeans, corn and wheat were higher than analysts had expected.

• Commodity funds were net sellers of Chicago soybeans, corn and wheat on Wednesday, traders said. They hold net short positions in all three.

• Egypt’s wheat imports rose by more than a million metric tons in 2023 to 10.88 million tons, data showed, with the country’s state grains buyer announcing the purchase of another 360,000 tons of Russian and French wheat on Wednesday.

• FranceAgriMer lowered its forecast for French wheat exports in 2023/24 by around 100,000 tons to 10.1 million tons, citing lower demand from China and increased competition from Ukraine and Russia, which expects another bumper harvest in the coming year.

• Ukraine has exported 2.5 million metric tons of grain so far this month, agriculture ministry data showed.

• Attacks on ships in the Red Sea are unlikely for now to affect exports of French cereals to Asia, FranceAgriMer said. Shipping sources have however said that some grain cargoes are being diverted around the Cape of Good Hope.