February 8, 2024 is fast approaching and predictions of who takes the center are aplenty. What makes the February 8 general elections unique is the fact that the winner of the previous election is contesting without a symbol. As popular as it may be on ground, it will be nothing short of miraculous for the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) to match its 2018 performance, where it emerged as the single largest party, and later formed a coalition government.
The out-of-favor PTI is now looking at a historic high turnout in excess of 60 percent to have any chance of staying in the race. The last time this happened was in 1970. This is how difficult a task this could be, more so, considering there is virtually no campaign on the ground. This leaves the two other major political parties, the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan People Party (PPP) in more realistic contention for the Prime Minister slot.
First, the PPP prospects. Ever since it lost significant ground in Punjab, after the rise of PTI – the PPP has not threatened to be in the pole position. In terms of popular vote, the PPP has strikingly similar numbers for both 2013 and 2018 – with 13 percent share at 6.9 million votes. All surveys indicate the PPP will once again emerge as the clear winner in its stronghold province of Sindh – that has accounted for over 80 percent of its seats and two-third of its popular vote in the last two elections.
But Sindh alone does not land you in Islamabad. With the race in North and Central Punjab increasingly looking between the PML-N and PTI (independents), PPP’s best bet is to repeat its 2008 performance in South Punjab. From being the largest party in South Punjab with 23 of the 50 seats – PPP was reduced to just 5 seats in 2018.
Why is South Punjab so critical? Because it decides who gets the chance to form the government. In each of the last seven general elections since 1990 – the winner of South Punjab formed the federal government – at times in coalition. It has not mattered if you led Central Punjab, or emerged as the largest party in Sindh, or clean swept Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. If you did not win South Punjab, you did not form the government in center.
For PML-N, the road to Islamabad may be trickier than the word on street. Unlike the PPP and PTI, who both have one province each where they are likely to emerge as clear winners, the PML-N faces stiff competition from its archrivals PTI, no matter how battered the latter is. Consider this, that the margin of victory in Punjab at 22 percent was the lowest in 2018 (72%: 2013), since at least 1990. While the PML-N swept central Punjab, having lost North and South to PTI was the death knell.
A simple majority (in case of no polling day and post-poll gimmicks) appears highly unlikely for any of the three leading contenders. A coalition government with PTI in it can almost be ruled out at this point, unless of course it wins as big as 2018 (unlikely). This essentially means both PML-N and PPP will need each other to have the required number. An extension of the PDM government from April 2022 to August 2023 – appears a highly likely scenario at this juncture.
That said, there is many a slip twix the cup and the lip. What happens of the winning independents will most likely be decided in the courts – as everyone is eyeing them. More than 22 million new voters (2018: 20 million) will be eligible to vote in 2024 – which makes 18 percent of the total registered voters. Who is able to lure the ones who turned 18 after 2018 may well be the decisive factor come February, 8.
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