CANBERRA: Chicago soybeans and corn futures rose on Monday but remained near three-year lows as demand in top importer China fell and speculators bet on further price declines.
Wheat fell as cheap shipments from the Black Sea region continued to pressure prices.
The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was up 0.4% at $11.88-1/4 a bushel by 0525 GMT, while CBOT corn rose 0.2% to $4.30 a bushel.
Both contracts fell last week to their lowest levels since December 2020, with soybeans touching $11.79 and corn $4.28-1/4.
CBOT Wheat dipped 0.3% to $5.94-3/4 a bushel, holding some distance above a three-year low of $5.40 reached last September.
Supply of soybeans from South America is plentiful while demand in China weakens as a shrinking pig herd reduces the need for animal feed, said Vitor Pistoia at Rabobank in Sydney.
“China imports roughly 60% of all exported soybeans. If they are not buying a lot, the price will fall,” he said, adding that the price dynamic may not change until data showing how much land U.S. farmers have planted with soybeans, corn and wheat are published in late March.
Soybeans, corn stuck near 3-year lows on abundant supplies
Trade was subdued as markets in China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam and Malaysia were closed for a public holiday on Monday.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Brazilian crop agency Conab and two private forecasters cut their estimates for the 2023/24 soybean harvest in Brazil, the world’s biggest soybean producer.
But the USDA has significantly raised its estimates for Brazil’s last harvest and Argentina is on track for a bumper crop, allaying any fears of shortages.
Plentiful supply of Brazilian beans has shrivelled U.S. soybean exports this year and pressured Chicago prices.
The USDA raised its estimate for U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 to 315 million bushels, up from 280 million in January and well above analysts’ estimates.
Speculators’ net short position in Chicago soybeans crept closer to all-time records last week, with funds selling soy again on Friday, traders said.
For corn, the USDA and Conab cut their estimates for Brazil’s crop but the USDA raised its forecast for U.S. 2023/24 corn ending stocks by more than most analysts expected to 2.172 billion bushels.
Speculators also hold their biggest net short position in corn for years.
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