SINGAPORE/BEIJING: Cereal and oilseed imports to China, the world’s biggest buyer of farm goods, will remain near record highs this year despite a recent spate of cancellations as lower global prices and a domestic output shortfall prompt purchases.
China’s wheat imports from Australia in January and February this year have nearly quadrupled from the same time last year, the latest customs data show. That trend should continue even after Beijing cancelled or postponed 1 million metric tons of Australian wheat last week.
The cancellations, along with those for about 500,000 tons of US wheat, had raised concerns of flagging Chinese demand, which because of its outsized role in global agriculture markets could have led to lower prices.
But traders and analysts say the cancellations will not impact overall demand as lower wheat prices will spur buying, along with more government funds allocated to boost grain and oil seed stockpiles.
“China’s imports of wheat and barley from Australia are running at break-neck speed,” said Ole Houe, director of advisory services at brokerage IKON Commodities in Sydney.
“And they are buying large volumes of soybeans, corn and wheat from other origins as well, such as the United States, France and Ukraine. The reality is that grain imports are going to be similar to last year’s record pace.”
China spent $234 billion on agriculture imports last year and is the world’s biggest soybean buyer, taking more than 60% of the oilseed shipped worldwide, mostly from Brazil and the United States. It has also become the top wheat buyer in recent years, particularly for higher quality grain, mostly from Australia, Canada and the US China was the second-largest corn importer last year, mainly for animal feed, with buying driven by higher local prices.
Crush margins turning positive this month have driven soybean imports, with processors in the hub of Rizhao making 114.29 yuan ($15.88) per ton after incurring losses since October. “Crush margins in China have improved as Brazilian prices have declined due to a big crop entering the market,” said an international grain trader in Singapore. “We expect buying to pick up from April and overall China’s imports this year will be similar to last year.”
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