NAPERVILLE, (Illinois): The US spring planting season is humming along at an above-average clip, though recent and upcoming rains should slow progress during what is typically peak week for corn planting.
Rain-induced planting delays, if excessive, could limit corn yields as pollination may occur in warmer weather. More immediately, wet spring weather can cap potential acreage gains, but fast planting has not always generated more crop acres.
In March, US corn planting intentions for 2024 came in well below expectations, but analysts were also suspicious of a notably light overall crop acreage, down 1.9% from 2023. Many expect these acres will be found in the government’s June or final surveys.
US forecasters on Tuesday placed slight odds on a wetter-than-normal May across parts of the Corn Belt with emphasis on the first two weeks, which could prevent a “fast” spring planting season. Significant weather-driven delays are unlikely, though they have occurred in two of the past five years (2019, 2022).
Even with favorable spring weather, potential increases to total 2024 US crop acres may be disappointing due to lower prices and the declining availability of US crop land.
The US Department of Agriculture on March 28 pegged 2024 US principal crop acres down about 6 million from 2023 and more than 4 million below the recent average when excluding outlier years.
Acres tend to rise into the June survey but are typically overstated at that time.
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