AIRLINK 207.70 Increased By ▲ 7.41 (3.7%)
BOP 10.35 Decreased By ▼ -0.14 (-1.33%)
CNERGY 7.13 Decreased By ▼ -0.08 (-1.11%)
FCCL 35.00 Increased By ▲ 0.06 (0.17%)
FFL 17.05 Decreased By ▼ -0.37 (-2.12%)
FLYNG 25.00 Increased By ▲ 0.15 (0.6%)
HUBC 131.18 Increased By ▲ 3.37 (2.64%)
HUMNL 14.18 Increased By ▲ 0.37 (2.68%)
KEL 4.95 Decreased By ▼ -0.05 (-1%)
KOSM 6.85 Decreased By ▼ -0.18 (-2.56%)
MLCF 44.64 Increased By ▲ 0.02 (0.04%)
OGDC 223.00 Increased By ▲ 0.85 (0.38%)
PACE 7.29 Decreased By ▼ -0.13 (-1.75%)
PAEL 43.08 Increased By ▲ 0.28 (0.65%)
PIAHCLA 17.20 Decreased By ▼ -0.19 (-1.09%)
PIBTL 8.48 Decreased By ▼ -0.03 (-0.35%)
POWER 9.12 Decreased By ▼ -0.03 (-0.33%)
PPL 192.10 Decreased By ▼ -0.63 (-0.33%)
PRL 43.60 Increased By ▲ 2.10 (5.06%)
PTC 25.14 Increased By ▲ 0.70 (2.86%)
SEARL 103.36 Increased By ▲ 2.09 (2.06%)
SILK 1.02 Decreased By ▼ -0.03 (-2.86%)
SSGC 43.10 Decreased By ▼ -0.77 (-1.76%)
SYM 18.58 Decreased By ▼ -0.18 (-0.96%)
TELE 9.26 Decreased By ▼ -0.28 (-2.94%)
TPLP 13.33 Increased By ▲ 0.25 (1.91%)
TRG 69.95 Increased By ▲ 3.76 (5.68%)
WAVESAPP 10.55 Increased By ▲ 0.02 (0.19%)
WTL 1.82 Increased By ▲ 0.04 (2.25%)
YOUW 4.00 Decreased By ▼ -0.04 (-0.99%)
BR100 12,113 Increased By 73 (0.61%)
BR30 37,165 Increased By 476.2 (1.3%)
KSE100 114,866 Increased By 61.6 (0.05%)
KSE30 36,085 Decreased By -17.3 (-0.05%)

Pakistan’s headline inflation clocked in at 17.3% on a year-on-year basis in April, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) said on Thursday, lower than the reading in March when it stood at 20.7%. On a month-on-month basis, the reading decreased to 0.4%.

“This is the lowest reading in the last 23 months (after May 2022),” said Mohammed Sohail, CEO of brokerage house Topline Securities, in a note.

The latest CPI figure takes July-April average inflation to 25.97% compared to 28.23% in the same period of the previous year.

The inflation reading is lower than the government’s expectations.

On Tuesday, the Ministry of Finance, in its ’Monthly Economic Update and Outlook’ report, projected CPI-based inflation in Pakistan to hover around 18.5-19.5% in April 2024, and decelerate further in the coming months,

In its monthly report, the ministry said the inflation outlook for April 2024 maintains a downward trajectory, attributed to the favorable base effect from the previous year and improvements in the domestic supply chain of essential items.

As per the Finance Division, the inflation outlook “appears moderate as the government is determined to reduce inflation by actively taking strict administrative measures”.

“Inflation is projected to hover around 18.5- 19.5% in April 2024. However, there are expectations of a gradual easing further to 17.5-18.5% in May 2024.”

Urban, rural inflation

The PBS said CPI inflation urban increased to 19.4% on year-on-year basis in April 2024 as compared to an increase of 21.9% in the previous month and 33.5% in April 2023.

On a month-on-month basis, it decreased to 0.1% in April 2024 as compared to an increase of 1.4% in the previous month and an increase of 2.0% in April 2023.

CPI inflation rural stood at 14.5% on year-on-year basis in April 2024 as compared to an increase of 19% in the previous month and 40.7% in April 2023.

On month-on-month basis, it decreased to 0.9% in April 2024 as compared to an increase of 2.1% in the previous month and an increase of 3% in April 2023.

SBP expectations

In its latest meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) maintained the key policy rate at 22%, its seventh successive decision to maintain the status quo.

“The Committee noted that macroeconomic stabilisation measures are contributing to considerable improvement in both inflation and external position, amidst moderate economic recovery.

“However, the MPC viewed that the level of inflation is still high. At the same time, global commodity prices appear to have bottomed out with resilient global growth.

“The recent geopolitical events have also added uncertainty about their outlook. Moreover, the upcoming budgetary measures may have implications for the near-term inflation outlook. On balance, the Committee stressed on continuation of the current monetary policy stance to bring inflation down to the target range of 5–7 percent by September 2025.”

The Committee viewed inflation to continue to remain on downward trajectory.

However, the Committee also noted that this inflation outlook is susceptible to risks emanating from the recent global oil price volatility along with bottoming out of other commodity prices; potential inflationary impact of resolution of circular debt in the energy sector; and tax rate-driven fiscal consolidation going forward.

Comments

Comments are closed.

Rebirth May 02, 2024 03:00pm
Interest rates would have to come down 500 basis points soon.
thumb_up Recommended (0)
RiP Khan May 02, 2024 03:38pm
What changed in the world that inflation is falling?
thumb_up Recommended (0)
Az_Iz May 02, 2024 04:48pm
High base effect. Prices are not falling. But they are increasing a bit more slowly.
thumb_up Recommended (0)
Beast May 02, 2024 05:38pm
Inflation deacelarate where? Here there where???????????
thumb_up Recommended (0)
Timmy May 02, 2024 10:20pm
Every institution in this country is inefficient, compromised and corrupt. How can we believe figure quotes by Statistics department of government. Ask anyone on the street if inflation has fallen.
thumb_up Recommended (0)