SINGAPORE: Asian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices rose to a six-month top this week, on the back of cooling demand in India, higher forecast temperatures in northeast Asia and suspended production at an Australian gas facility.
The average LNG price for July delivery into north-east Asia was at $12.60 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), its highest levels since December 15, industry sources estimated.
The August delivery price was estimated at $12.70/mmBtu.
“The strength of demand in Asia has provided some support to prices and differentials … The level of tendering activity has remained high due to a combination of fundamental drivers across countries, including strong economic activity, hot weather, challenging upstream production and restocking demand,” said Lucas Schmitt, research director on short-term LNG at Wood Mackenzie.
“We expect Asian summer LNG demand to increase year-on-year, but at a softer rate than in the last few months. Inventories for key northeast Asian markets seem broadly balanced.”
Global LNG: Asia spot prices hold at 6-month high as hot weather drives demand
Spot demand from India remains strong as a heatwave persists, but northeast Asian buying activity has mainly been for trade optimization despite the meteorological agencies of Japan and Korea forecasting a 50% probability of above-normal temperatures in June and July, said Rystad Energy analyst Lu Ming Pang in a note.
“Despite the impending warm weather forecasts, there is still a lack of significant market activity, which may suggest sufficient supplies for the summer season ahead. At current prices, it is likely that Northeast Asian players will bide their time to evaluate developments in summer requirements.”
On the supply side, Chevron had suspended production at its Wheatstone gas facility in Australia to repair the platform’s fuel gas system. It has commenced repair work, which is expected to be completed in the coming weeks.
The production suspension supported Europe gas prices this week. S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily North West Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoesdelivered in July on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $11.151/mmBtu on June 13, a $0.07/mmBtu discount to the July gas price at the Dutch TTF hub.
Argus assessed the July delivery price at $11.10/mmBtu, while Spark Commodities assessed it at $11.122/mmBtu.
But low European demand for gas has kept storage levels at record highs this year, with Wood Mackenzie forecasting gas storage will be full by end-September and remain full until end-October, with an additional 4 million metric tonnes per annum (tpa) of floating storage also accumulated.
“Limitations on European injection demand this summer and weak downstream consumption continue to weigh on the region’s LNG receipts,” said Samuel Good, head of LNG pricing at commodity pricing agency Argus.
“An open inter-basin arbitrage for Atlantic loadings is continuing to draw LNG away from Europe and to Asia instead, where demand has remained strong even as Asian spot delivered prices have risen well into the double digits.”
Meanwhile, LNG freight rates experienced sharp increases this week, said Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan, with the Atlantic spot rate rising to $64,250/day on Friday, and the Pacific rate gaining to $48,000/day.
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