SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars were celebrating fresh highs against the yen on Tuesday as relatively high yields attracted a steady flow of carry trades, while most other crosses remained gridlocked.
With the US dollar blocked at 160.00 yen by the threat of Japanese intervention, investors were shorting the yen against other major currencies that offered relatively high yields.
That saw the Aussie reach as far as 106.38, giving it a gain of 7.6% for the quarter.
A break of the 2007 top at 107.84 would take it to heights not seen since late 1991.
The kiwi dollar reached it highest since 1986 at 97.93 yen, having climbed almost 8% for the quarter.
The flows from the yen helped nudge the Aussie up to $0.6655, from a low of $0.6627 on Monday.
Stiff resistance lies around $0.6679 and $0.6714. The kiwi was flat at $0.6120, pinned between resistance at $0.6148 and support around $0.6098.
A hawkish policy outlook from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has underpinned the Aussie, with markets pricing just a one-in-four chance of a rate cut this year and only 43 basis points of easing to the end of 2025.
Australia, NZ dollars surge against yen, inflation tests loom
The risks will be refined by consumer price data for May due on Wednesday where a high result could well lead markets to price in more chance of a rate hike.
Median forecasts are that the annual pace of inflation picked up to 3.8% in May, from 3.6% in April, in part due to base effects as the index took a large monthly fall last year.
The April CPI had already surprised on the upside, suggesting inflation for the entire second quarter could top RBA forecasts of 3.8% for both the headline and core measures.
“Our base case remains that slow economic growth will give the RBA enough confidence in the outlook for further progress on inflation to stay on hold, but near-term risk sits with a hike,” said Taylor Nugent, a senior economist at NAB.
“NAB has long pencilled in a first cut in November, but an absence of genuine progress across the domestically sensitive prices this quarter would further skew the risk to on hold for longer.”
Markets are not quite as hawkish on New Zealand, where a first rate cut is fully priced for November and more than 130 basis points of easing implied out to the end of 2025.
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