While camping in the serene upper reaches of Neelam Valley last week, I observed that a stark transformation is underway. Days are now punctuated by soaring temperatures that strain the endurance of both flora and fauna, while sudden, torrential downpours unleash havoc in the form of landslides and floods.
These once-rare events have become distressingly routine, reshaping not just the physical terrain but the very fabric of life for communities nestled amidst these breathtaking vistas. Yet, this is not just a local lament; it is a microcosm of a global crisis.
Across continents, from the Arctic’s melting ice caps to the drought-stricken plains of Africa, the fingerprints of climate change are rewriting the narrative of vulnerability and resilience.
Global warming is not a distant threat—it’s a present reality. With the Earth’s temperature already having risen just over 1°C above pre-industrial levels, we are witnessing the severe consequences of this change.
Heatwaves are breaking records, floods are devastating even the most prepared countries, and ferocious fires are consuming forests and villages. It’s not just our imagination or increased media coverage; the climate has fundamentally changed.
The scientific evidence is overwhelming. The kind of heat that was once expected only once a decade is now three times more likely.
Extreme heavy rain is now 30 percent more likely, and droughts, characterized by less rain and drier soil, are 70 percent more likely. Scientists can now directly link human activity to some of the worst climatic events in recent history, events that we have made multiple times more likely or even virtually impossible without our influence.
The thresholds: 1.5°C and 2°C of warming
The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2°C, with efforts to keep it to 1.5°C. But how different will our world be at these thresholds?
At 1.5°C of warming, extreme heat events that were previously seen once a decade will be four times more likely, exposing hundreds of millions more people to deadly heatwaves by the middle of the century. At 2°C, this extreme heat will be nearly six times more likely.
The Earth’s water cycle will also become more intense, leading to more extreme weather events.
Areas that are already wet will experience heavier rainfall, while regions that are dry will face more severe droughts. Monsoons will change, exacerbating the situation in regions that depend on them.
The catastrophic 4°C scenario
If global emissions continue to rise at the current rate, we could see a 4°C increase by the end of the century. This level of warming may seem minor, but it would bring catastrophic changes.
The last time global temperatures were more than 2.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels was over 3 million years ago, a time when early humans were just beginning to craft stone tools.
At 4°C, the kind of extreme heat we previously considered rare would become an annual occurrence.
Extreme rainfall and drought would become more frequent and severe, leading to disastrous consequences for agriculture, water supply, and human health.
The impact on ice and oceans
The Earth will look progressively different from space as the planet warms. By 2050, even at 1°C of warming, the sea ice covering the Arctic Ocean will almost disappear in at least one September, revealing a dark ocean. If the sea ice does disappear, it will regrow in winter as a thinner, more delicate cover. At 3-4°C of warming, the Arctic sea ice could disappear entirely during most summers.
Sea level rise is another significant concern. Even if we manage to limit warming to 1.5-2°C, we would still lose many of the world’s glaciers, heat the oceans, and erode the ice sheets.
By 2300, sea levels could rise by half a meter, although it could reach 3 meters, enough to alter coastlines globally.
If we continue increasing greenhouse gas emissions, we could see a planet 10°C hotter by the year 2300.
Every glacier in the world could be lost, and the Antarctic Ice Sheet could destabilize, leading to a rapid increase in sea levels for centuries. In such a world, the seas could rise by up to 7 meters, drastically reshaping our continents.
The unavoidable changes
Even if we could stop our emissions instantly, some parts of the planet would continue to change as they react to past emissions.
Glaciers would keep retreating for decades or centuries, and the oceans would keep warming. This means that sea levels will continue to rise, and there will be more coastal flooding, no matter what we do.
In the distant future, we may be able to reverse some of the impacts of climate change by removing excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
The weather could become more normal, and the Arctic sea ice could return each summer. However, many changes, such as warmer oceans, diminished ice sheets, and higher sea levels, will last for hundreds to thousands of years.
The urgency of immediate action
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has stated that “unless there are immediate, rapid, and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to close to 1.5°C or even 2°C will be beyond reach.”
The global contributors: United States and China
Two of the biggest contributors to global CO2 emissions are the United States and China. These countries, along with others, must take decisive actions to reduce their carbon footprints significantly.
Policies and pledges made under the Paris Agreement show promise, but the real challenge lies in their successful implementation and enforcement.
In the global fight against climate change, the reluctance of major contributors like China and the US, alongside other wealthy nations of the Global North, to adequately fund climate mitigation and resilience measures is a glaring injustice.
Despite being primary drivers of the carbon emissions responsible for global warming, these nations often drag their feet when called upon to financially support vulnerable countries like Pakistan.
This disparity underscores a critical imbalance: while nations with minimal contributions to CO2 production face the brunt of climate impacts, those with the greatest responsibility shirk their duty to assist.
This short-sighted approach not only jeopardizes the livelihoods and environments of less resourceful nations but also threatens the collective future of our planet. It’s imperative that these major emitters recognize that in the face of climate catastrophe, we are all passengers on the same ship—failure to act now imperils us all, irrespective of borders or economic prowess.
Climate change is not a binary issue of winning or losing; it’s a spectrum where every action counts. What happens next is up to us. Future generations will judge us based on the choices we make today. The need for immediate, rapid, and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions has never been more critical.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2024
The writer is a civil servant with deep interest in the oil, gas and climate change issues
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