MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is expected to see slight relief on Thursday after the dollar index dropped to a near four-month low largely on the back of the rally in the Japanese yen.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at 83.5750-83.5850 the US dollar compared with 83.5825 in the previous session.
The lift to the dollar index from robust US retail sales data did not last and the gauge on Wednesday dropped to the lowest since mid-March.
The rally on the yen, possibly amid intervention by the Bank of Japan, pushed the dollar index below 104.
The onshore Chinese yuan inched up while other Asian currencies were largely rangebound. The rupee will “see a bit” of relief in the sense that a push to an all-time low of 83.6650 is unlikely, a currency trader at a bank said.
The rupee, however, is “facing a lot of stress right now on account of dollar payments for various purposes” and the dollar/rupee pair is a buy on dips, he said.
The rupee has been drawing support at near the 83.60 handle on expectations that the central bank will not allow the currency to make a lifetime low.
US interest rate cuts
The dollar against its major peers is not being helped by rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in a few months. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the time to cut rates was “drawing closer”.
New York Fed President John Williams used the same language in an interview with the Wall Street Journal.
“Markets are (now) fully pricing-in a September cut. That aligns with our long-held view,” ANZ Bank said in a note.
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